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US Dollar Setup Shows Signs of Weakness, Bullish Bias Still Favored

US Dollar Setup Shows Signs of Weakness, Bullish Bias Still Favored

2011-09-21 10:09:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYShort-term US Dollar positioning is showing signs of weakness but bearish setups on key risky assets (S&P 500, crude oil) hint the larger trend favors gains.

S&P 500 – Prices are stalling near minor resistance-turned-support at $1204.40, with a break below exposing the next layer at $1176.40. Broadly speaking, consolidation within a Flag chart formation points to bearish continuation, with the resumption of the larger down move confirmed on a break below the Flag bottom (now at $1136.32).

US_Dollar_Setup_Shows_Signs_of_Weakness_Bullish_Bias_Still_Favored_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Setup Shows Signs of Weakness, Bullish Bias Still Favored

CRUDE OIL Prices are perched just above support at $84.61 – the 23.6% Fibonacci extension level – with a break below this boundary exposing the 38.2% level at $80.97 and validating the longer-term bearish implications of a Flag consolidation chart pattern. Initial resistance remains at the top of a falling channel set from early May, now squarely at the $89.00 figure.

US_Dollar_Setup_Shows_Signs_of_Weakness_Bullish_Bias_Still_Favored_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Setup Shows Signs of Weakness, Bullish Bias Still Favored

GOLD Prices continue working towards firm validation of a double top below the $1900/oz figure marked by a pair of Bearish Engulfing candlestick patterns. Near-term support remains in the $1702.90-1745.25 range, with resistance a rising trend line set from early June (now at $1838.16) that had previously acted as support.

US_Dollar_Setup_Shows_Signs_of_Weakness_Bullish_Bias_Still_Favored_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Setup Shows Signs of Weakness, Bullish Bias Still Favored

US DOLLAR Prices are testing rising trend lien support established from late August, with negative RSI divergence warning of waning bullish momentum. A break lower sees initial support in the 9657-9681 region. Near-term resistance line up at 9798.

US_Dollar_Setup_Shows_Signs_of_Weakness_Bullish_Bias_Still_Favored_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Setup Shows Signs of Weakness, Bullish Bias Still Favored

8hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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