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S&P 500 Chart Setup Favors Weakness, Bolstering US Dollar Outlook

S&P 500 Chart Setup Favors Weakness, Bolstering US Dollar Outlook

2011-09-05 02:45:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYS&P 500 technical positioning favors renewed selling, promising gains for the safe-haven US Dollar as the currency approaches the top of its recent range.

S&P 500 – Per last week’s discussion of major resistance in the 1227.40-1257.30 region at the former neckline of a critical Head and Shoulders top, prices put in a Bearish Engulfing and turned lower at the band’s outer boundary. Initial support has been met at 1166.31, the 23.6% Fibonacci extension level, with resistance still lining up at 1227.40. Broadly speaking, price action since the early August low appears to be taking the shape of a Flag chart pattern, a setup favoring bearish continuation once congestion gives way to directional momentum once again.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Favors_Weakness_Bolstering_US_Dollar_Outlook_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Favors Weakness, Bolstering US Dollar Outlook

CRUDE OIL As we suspected last week, prices moved lower after putting in a pair of Doji candlesticks below support-turned-resistance at $89.59, the June 27 wick low. Initial support from here stands at a rising trend line connecting major lows since August 9, now at $84.80. Resistance remains at $89.59.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Favors_Weakness_Bolstering_US_Dollar_Outlook_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Favors Weakness, Bolstering US Dollar Outlook

GOLD Prices took out resistance at $1877.15 – the 76.4% Fibonacci extension level – only to run into a barrier at rising trend lie set from the swing lows visited two weeks ago. Renewed upward momentum sees trend line resistance at $1902.73, a level closely followed by the measured Fib extension target at $1908.38. Alternatively, a break below current support exposes the 61.8% Fib at $1857.83.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Favors_Weakness_Bolstering_US_Dollar_Outlook_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Favors Weakness, Bolstering US Dollar Outlook

US DOLLAR Prices are testing above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 9502, with the bulls poised to challenge the range top in place since early August at 9544 marked by the 38.2% mark. A break above this boundary exposes resistance at the falling trend line connecting major swing highs since late May, now at 9650.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Favors_Weakness_Bolstering_US_Dollar_Outlook_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Favors Weakness, Bolstering US Dollar Outlook

Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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