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US Dollar May Return to July Low as S&P 500, Crude Oil Rebound

US Dollar May Return to July Low as S&P 500, Crude Oil Rebound

2011-08-15 05:15:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAYThe safe-haven US Dollar may pull back to retest the major low set in late July as risky assets including the S&P 500 and crude oil rebound from the recent selloff.

S&P 500 – Prices are testing above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement resistance at 1183.95, with a break higher exposing the 50% level at 1215.99. Near-term support stands at 1116.30, the August 8 close. The longer-term bias has remained bearish since prices completed a large Head and Shoulders top just over a week ago, making any further corrective within the context of a larger down move.

US_Dollar_May_Return_to_July_Low_as_SP_500_Crude_Oil_Rebound_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar May Return to July Low as S&P 500, Crude Oil Rebound

CRUDE OIL Prices put in a Long-Legged Doji candlestick above support at $84.72 – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the March 2009 low – hinting a corrective bounce is ahead. Major rising channel support-turned-resistance lines up at $92.77. Shorter term, the break above $84.91 exposes $90.62.

US_Dollar_May_Return_to_July_Low_as_SP_500_Crude_Oil_Rebound_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar May Return to July Low as S&P 500, Crude Oil ReboundUS_Dollar_May_Return_to_July_Low_as_SP_500_Crude_Oil_Rebound_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar May Return to July Low as S&P 500, Crude Oil Rebound

GOLD Prices finished last week squarely at the Fibonacci-implied extension target level, with oversold RSI studies hinting a pullback is becoming increasingly likely. Near-term, a bearish Evening Star candlestick below the $1800 figure marked a decline to resistance-turned-support at the top of a rising channel set from early July, with a break below 1727.15 exposing 1706.54. Alternatively, a bounce above 1747.76 exposes 1773.26.

US_Dollar_May_Return_to_July_Low_as_SP_500_Crude_Oil_Rebound_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar May Return to July Low as S&P 500, Crude Oil ReboundUS_Dollar_May_Return_to_July_Low_as_SP_500_Crude_Oil_Rebound_body_Picture_9.png, US Dollar May Return to July Low as S&P 500, Crude Oil Rebound

US DOLLAR Prices appear to be forming a near-term Head and Shoulders top. Confirmation requires a daily close below 9521, the setup’s would-be neckline. Initial support following a break lower stands at 9474, but the Head and Shoulders formation implies a downside target at 9361. For the sake of a reference point, that corresponds to the 1.4450-1.45 area on EURUSD.

US_Dollar_May_Return_to_July_Low_as_SP_500_Crude_Oil_Rebound_body_Picture_10.png, US Dollar May Return to July Low as S&P 500, Crude Oil Rebound

Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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