US Dollar May Return to July Low as S&P 500, Crude Oil Rebound
S&P 500 – Prices are testing above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement resistance at 1183.95, with a break higher exposing the 50% level at 1215.99. Near-term support stands at 1116.30, the August 8 close. The longer-term bias has remained bearish since prices completed a large Head and Shoulders top just over a week ago, making any further corrective within the context of a larger down move.
CRUDE OIL – Prices put in a Long-Legged Doji candlestick above support at $84.72 – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the March 2009 low – hinting a corrective bounce is ahead. Major rising channel support-turned-resistance lines up at $92.77. Shorter term, the break above $84.91 exposes $90.62.
GOLD – Prices finished last week squarely at the Fibonacci-implied extension target level, with oversold RSI studies hinting a pullback is becoming increasingly likely. Near-term, a bearish Evening Star candlestick below the $1800 figure marked a decline to resistance-turned-support at the top of a rising channel set from early July, with a break below 1727.15 exposing 1706.54. Alternatively, a bounce above 1747.76 exposes 1773.26.
US DOLLAR – Prices appear to be forming a near-term Head and Shoulders top. Confirmation requires a daily close below 9521, the setup’s would-be neckline. Initial support following a break lower stands at 9474, but the Head and Shoulders formation implies a downside target at 9361. For the sake of a reference point, that corresponds to the 1.4450-1.45 area on EURUSD.
Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news
To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at firstname.lastname@example.org
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.