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S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

2011-06-27 03:39:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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S&P 500 – The bullish Dragonfly Doji candlestick identified last week has been invalidated. While this has helped dissipate immediate upside pressure in favor of a more neutral near-term tone, the possibility of a double bottom remains real, with a daily close below 1257.30 needed to meaningfully reignite bearish momentum.

SP_500_Hints_Doubt_Bottom_Oil_and_Gold_at_Trend-Defining_Barriers_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

CRUDE OIL Prices have taken out support at $92.11 – the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level – opening the door for the bears to challenge the 76.4% level at $89.17. Sizing the weekly chart, prices are testing critical support at the bottom of a channel set from February 2009, with a break amounting to a structural bearish reversal. The 61.8% level has been recast as near-term resistance.

SP_500_Hints_Doubt_Bottom_Oil_and_Gold_at_Trend-Defining_Barriers_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining BarriersSP_500_Hints_Doubt_Bottom_Oil_and_Gold_at_Trend-Defining_Barriers_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

GOLD Prices took out the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level ($1514.03) to challenge the 50% level at $1500.46. As with oil, the weekly chart hints at a mounting threat to the long-term bullish trend with prices taking out the midline of a rising channel established over the past year. The channel bottom ($1466.03) is now in the cross-hairs, with a break lower amounting to a major long-term reversal.

SP_500_Hints_Doubt_Bottom_Oil_and_Gold_at_Trend-Defining_Barriers_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining BarriersSP_500_Hints_Doubt_Bottom_Oil_and_Gold_at_Trend-Defining_Barriers_body_Picture_9.png, S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

US DOLLAR Mirroring the double bottom being hinted at in S&P 500 positioning, a double top may be underway for the greenback. Prices are perched squarely below resistance at 9764.97, the May 24 high reinforced by the top of a rising channel set from the June 7 swing low. Near-term support lines up at 9691.19, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level.

SP_500_Hints_Doubt_Bottom_Oil_and_Gold_at_Trend-Defining_Barriers_body_USD_062711.png, S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

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