S&P 500 Positions to Reverse Higher, Threatening US Dollar
S&P 500 – As we suspected yesterday, the pullback from resistance at 1292.51, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, appears overwhelmingly corrective. Prices failed to breach resistance-turned-support at a falling trend line connecting major lows since early May, producing a well-defined bullish Dragonfly Doji instead. Further gains are likely ahead, with a break of the 38.2% level exposing the 50% retracement at 1303.20.
CRUDE OIL – Crude has now invalidated the bullish Hammer candlestick indentified earlier this week, although the broad range in place above the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level ($92.11) remains broadly intact. A break below support exposes the 76.4% level at $89.17. The upside is capped by a falling channel top, now broadly aligned with the 50% level at $94.49.
GOLD – As we suspected yesterday, a bearish Spinning Top candlestick pattern below resistance at the midline of a rising channel that had confined price since early May preceded a selloff, with prices taking out the formation’s bottom and opening the door to further downside. Immediate follow-through may not materialize, with prices taking some time to consolidate into the week-end, but broad positioning favors a decline to test the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level at $1509.49 over the days ahead. Importantly, gold has been exceptionally choppy lately, so reading too much into any given technical setup at this early stage seems premature until significant momentum materializes.
US DOLLAR – Prices took out resistance at 9645.55, the 61.8%Fibonacci retracement level, but negative RSI divergence warns of near-term weakness ahead. The upside is capped by the 76.4% Fib at 9691.19, with the 61.8% barrier now recast as near-term support. A break below that exposes the 50% retracement at 9608.66 as well as the underside of a rising channel set from the June 7 low.
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