S&P 500, Crude Oil Positioning Hint US Dollar Rebound Ahead
S&P 500 – Prices are testing resistance at 1331.70, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 5/2-5/25 decline. The barrier is reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from May’s swing high. The overall structure has looked broadly bearish since prices took out a rising trend line established from the mid-March low, suggesting the recent upswing is corrective. A reversal lower from here sees initial support at 1321.2, the 23.6% retracement level. Alternatively, a break past immediate resistance exposes the 50% Fib at 1340.20.
CRUDE OIL – Prices continue to consolidate below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the May 2nd high at $102.35. A break above this boundary exposes the 50% level at $104.73. Broadly speaking, anything shy of that keeps the overall structure broadly bearish. Near-term support stands at the psychologically significant $100 figure, followed by the 5/6 low at $94.65.
GOLD – Prices have taken out resistance at $1533.12, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the May 2 high, clearing the way for an advance to the 76.4% level at $1549.91. The 61.8% Fib has been recast as near-term support, with a break back below that targeting the 50% retracement at $1519.55.
US DOLLAR – Prices have met support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 5/2-5/24 advance at 9551.08. While no clear indication of reversal has been given, a strong inverse correlation between the greenback and the S&P 500 and an increasingly fading one with gold suggests a sentiment-driven bounce amid renewed risk aversion may materialize. Initial resistance stands at 9601.56, the 38.2% retracement level. Alternatively, renewed selling targets the 61.8% level at 9500.60.
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