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Dollar Rebound Hinted as Stock Positioning Points to Collapse in Risk Appetite

Dollar Rebound Hinted as Stock Positioning Points to Collapse in Risk Appetite

2011-02-25 03:48:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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US DOLLAR INDEX The greenback is testing trend-defining support at a rising trend line set from the record low in March 2008, with a break lower amounting to a material bearish shift in long-term positioning. Likewise, the boundary is a logical place for a reversal higher and the currency’s behavior here over the coming days and weeks will be critical in determining where the benchmark unit (and the major currencies in general) are heading.

Dollar_Rebound_Hinted_as_Stock_Positioning_Points_to_Collapse_in_Risk_Appetite_body_02252011_USD.png, Dollar Rebound Hinted as Stock Positioning Points to Collapse in Risk Appetite

MSCI WORLD STOCK INDEX – Prices are testing a critical support level at the confluence of two significant trend lines – a longer-term one set from August and a minor one dating back to December – as well as 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the late-November swing bottom. Negative RSI divergence hints the path of least resistance favors the downside, suggesting a major collapse in market-wide risk appetite may be just around the corner.

Dollar_Rebound_Hinted_as_Stock_Positioning_Points_to_Collapse_in_Risk_Appetite_body_02252011_STK.png, Dollar Rebound Hinted as Stock Positioning Points to Collapse in Risk Appetite

CRUDE OIL Prices spiked higher but overall positioning remains little changed, with crude trapped between the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the downswing from late January 2010 ($98.40) and a rising trend line connecting major highs since June (now at $95.53). Renewed upward momentum targets the 200% Fib at $101.83 while a break back below the trend line exposes $92.84.

Dollar_Rebound_Hinted_as_Stock_Positioning_Points_to_Collapse_in_Risk_Appetite_body_02252011_OIL.png, Dollar Rebound Hinted as Stock Positioning Points to Collapse in Risk Appetite

GOLDPrices continue to consolidate below triple top resistance in the $1411.75-1424.60 region. Negative RSI divergence hints at the likelihood of a downside scenario. Initial support lining up at $1393.30 (the Jan 13 high) and is reinforced by a rising trend line set from the January low. Penetration below this barrier initially exposes $1376.20.

Dollar_Rebound_Hinted_as_Stock_Positioning_Points_to_Collapse_in_Risk_Appetite_body_02252011_GLD.png, Dollar Rebound Hinted as Stock Positioning Points to Collapse in Risk Appetite

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