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Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report

Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally - COT Report

Justin McQueen, Analyst

US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, COT Report –Analysis

  • Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, But Likely Caught Out by Vaccine Update
  • Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally

The Predictive Power of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to November 10th, released November 16th)

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Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally - COT Report

Given that the majority of the reporting week covered the election uncertainty with a winner not declared until November 7th. The latest CFTC update covering up to November 10th saw little changes in USD positioning with net shorts against G10 FX rising by a marginal $69mln. That said, the preferred trade had been to flock to the safe-haven Yen with net longs jumping by $1.6bln (+8% of open interest). In turn, investors had been the most bullish on JPY since November 2016. However, given the vaccine optimism stemming from Pfizer it is likely that a sizeable amount of JPY longs would have been unwind, particularly as risk sentiment and US bond yields firm.

Positioning in GBP grew more bearish as net shorts picked up by $550mln, net shorts now at the largest since August. Although, while sentiment in GBP has softened, the additional bearish bets adds more fuel for a GBP rally in the event of a EU-UK breakthrough in trade talks. Elsewhere, bullish positioning in the Euro continued to be unwound, however, this looks largely to have been against the Japanese Yen. The Euro has maintained a 1.16-1.19 range, however, the outlook is likely to grow more bullish with a break above 1.1920.

Across the commodity currencies, speculators had been slightly bullish on the NZD going into the RBNZ meeting with net longs rising by $55mln, which is likely to have grown following the re-pricing in negative rate risks. AUD saw bearish bets grow by $540mln, however, with Chinese Yuan gains persisting and Aussie terms of trade firming, AUD/NZD may be an avenue for shorts to unwind, thus prompting a bottom with RBNZ re-pricing also out of the way.

Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report

US Dollar |

Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report

EUR/USD |

Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report

GBP/USD |

Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report

USD/JPY |

Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report

USD/CHF |

Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report

USD/CAD |

Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report

AUD/USD |

Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report

NZD/USD |

Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report Japanese Yen Bulls at 4yr Highs, Rising GBP Shorts to Fuel Brexit Deal Rally  - COT Report

For a more in-depth analysis on FX, check out the FX Forecast

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