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EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

2020-11-02 10:30:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, COT Report –Analysis

  • EUR/USD Net Longs Unwind on Renewed Lockdowns
  • GBP/USD Sentiment Dragged Lower by Euro
  • USD/JPY Remains the Preferred US Election Hedge

The Predictive Power of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to October 27th, released October 30th)

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EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

In the week to October 27th, speculators had continued to unwind their bearish positioning in the US Dollar as net shorts were cut by $1bln against G10 currencies. Majority of this positioning change had been tied to the cut back in Euro net longs ($1.5bln), which is now at the lowest since late July. Sentiment in the Euro has deteriorated amid renewed national lockdown measures across France and Germany, which in turn looks to prompt a contraction in Q4 growth, while the ECB is set to boost QE at the end of the year. That said, the near-term focus remains on the US election, which will drive FX.

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The Pound had been the other currency sold against the US Dollar, which had tracked the Euro lower. However, while positioning is slightly net-short, Brexit negotiations remain a key factor for the near-term trajectory in the currency. In turn, with markets remaining cognisant to the fact that a deal is possible, investors have refrained from adding notable short positioning.

Positioning in the Japanese Yen were supportive with net longs showing a $460mln increase as market uncertainty picked up. USD/JPY also remains the preferred US election hedge. Elsewhere, investors had piled into pro-cyclical currencies with AUD and NZD showing a slight extension in net longs, while the Canadian Dollar saw a slight easing of net shorts. However, the Loonie does remain hampered on lockdown risk with oil prices weighing on sentiment.

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EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

US Dollar |

EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

EUR/USD |

EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

GBP/USD |

EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

USD/JPY |

EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

USD/CHF |

EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

USD/CAD |

EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

AUD/USD |

EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

NZD/USD |

EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report EUR/USD Net Longs Slashed, USD Bottoms as Bears Unwind - COT Report

For a more in-depth analysis on FX, check out the FX Forecast

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