US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, COT Report –Analysis
- Euro Sentiment Improves
- Safe-Haven Demand Eases Amid Equity Market Bid
- High Beta (AUD, NZD) Positioning Remains Neutral
The Predictive Power of the COT Report
Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to July 7th, released July 10th)
EUR/USD Bulls Charge, US Dollar and Japanese Yen Out of Favour - COT Report
In the first week of July, speculators increased their short exposure to the US Dollar as bearish bets rose ~$550mln against G10 currencies. That said, US Dollar short positioning on an open adjusted basis did however ease slightly from 25% to 21%.
Sentiment for the Euro improved once again as investors were net buyers ($700mln) amid a re-establishing of bullish bets in the currency. In turn, the Euro remains the largest long in the G10 complex ahead of the key EU summit. Price action in the Euro remains constructive with topside targets for 1.14-1.15, and thus dips are likely to meet support.
Demand for safe-havens eased as net longs were cut in the Swiss Franc and more so in the Japanese Yen (-$809mln), which comes amid improvement in equity market sentiment, particularly the tech sector and Chinese stocks. That said, rallies in USD/JPY are likely to remain capped at 108.00.
Across high beta currencies (AUD, NZD) investors continue to show a neutral bias as positioning remains flat, while the Canadian Dollar has seen a modest reduction in net shorts. However, we expect key support at 1.3490-1.3500 to cap any pullbacks in the short-term.
Elsewhere, speculators were net buyers of GBP for the first time in 2-week. Although, while the currency has been among the key beneficiaries of USD weakness, political headwinds continue to pose a drag on the outlook amid the interminable EU-UK trade negotiating process.
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GBP/USD |
USD/JPY |
USD/CHF |
USD/CAD |
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