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US Dollar Selling Reversed, Japanese Yen Deteriorates, CAD Buying Persists  - COT Report

US Dollar Selling Reversed, Japanese Yen Deteriorates, CAD Buying Persists - COT Report

2020-01-27 09:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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COT Report – USD, GBP, CAD & JPY Analysis

  • US Dollar Selling Reversed
  • Japanese Yen Sentiment Deteriorates Sharply
  • Canadian Dollar Buying Persists

The Predictive Power of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

US Dollar Selling Reversed, Japanese Yen Deteriorates, CAD Buying Persists  - COT Report

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to January 21st, released January 24th)

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US Dollar Selling Reversed, Japanese Yen Deteriorates, CAD Buying Persists - COT Report

According to the latest CFTC report, investors had added bullish bets in the US Dollar for the first time in 6-weeks with net longs growing around $1bln against G10 currencies to $7.638bln.

The largest positioning change had been observed in the Japanese Yen with sentiment for the safe-haven continuing to deteriorate as net shorts grew $1.5bln amid an increase in outright JPY shorts. However, speculators look to have been wrong-footed amid the coronavirus outbreak, which underpinned the JPY, making the currency the best performer last week. Net positioning in the Swiss Franc flipped to long for the first time since August 2017.

Speculative net longs in the Canadian Dollar rose for a fourth consecutive week. However, a dovish BoC meeting on January 22nd, alongside a plunge in oil prices had subsequently meant that the Loonie was among the underperforming currencies last week. Positioning changes in the Australian Dollar saw net shorts marginally cutback, while speculators have now switched to net long in the New Zealand Dollar.

The Pound saw a minor contraction in net bullish bets as gross shorts pick-up. Although, the near-term direction for GBP will depend on the upcoming Bank of England decision, whereby expectations for a cut is a coin-toss. We sit in the camp that the BoE will refrain from easing and instead opt for a dovish hold. Elsewhere, net shorts in the Euro moderated slightly, although, given the sizeable bearish bets in the currency, upside remains limited.

COT Currency Range

US Dollar

COT Report US Dollar

EUR/USD

COT Report EuroPlease add a description for the image.

GBP/USD

COT Report GBP/USDPlease add a description for the image.

USD/JPY

COT Report Japanese Yen Please add a description for the image.

USD/CHF

COT Report Swiss FrancPlease add a description for the image.

USD/CAD

COT Report Canadian DollarPlease add a description for the image.

AUD/USD

COT Report Australian DollarPlease add a description for the image.

NZD/USD

COT Report New Zealand DollarPlease add a description for the image.

For a more in-depth analysis on FX, check out the FX Forecast

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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