COT Report: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper Analysis & News
- Trader Badly Positioned for Crude Oil Plunge
- Gold Net Longs Ease
- Copper Bulls at Risk
The Predictive Power of the CoT Report
Oil: According to the latest speculative positioning, net bullish bets on Brent crude rose to a fresh 15-month high. However, given the continued fears over the outbreak of the coronavirus, traders appear to be badly positioned after Brent crude prices saw its largest weekly drop since September 2018. While the impact of the virus on the oil market is difficult to assess, focus will be on China’s ability to contain the outbreak. As such, risks remain tilted to the downside as the number of cases continue to rise, prompting a liquidation in bullish bets as global demand for fuel eases.
Gold: Investors lightened their net longs in Gold with gross longs cut by 1%, while short positions increased by 6% as the safe-haven remained range bound. Keep in mind however, that this was prior to Friday’s breakout to $1580 on the back of safe-haven flows stemming from a pullback in risk appetite. Subsequently, with coronavirus concerns the temporary market driver, gold prices are likely to remain underpinned in the near-term.
Copper: Amid the ongoing concerns around Chinese demand, pro-cyclical commodities such as copper have been on the backfoot. Recent changes in positioning has seen investors reduce their outright longs and shorts in the industrial metal. Although, with equity markets coming under pressure, downside in copper prices looks set to persist.
Current Positions
Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to January 21st, released January 24th)
Oil Price Chart and Positions
Gold Price Chart and Positions
Silver Price Chart and Positions
Copper Price Chart and Positions
*Long & Short positions are adjusted for open interest
--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
