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US Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT Report

US Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT Report

Justin McQueen, Analyst

COT Report – Analysis and Talking Points

The Predictive Power of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

US Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT Report

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to December 17th, released December 20th)

US Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT Report

In the week up to December 17th, CFTC data highlighted that speculators cutback on their bullish bets in the US Dollar by $2.78bln against G10 currencies to $18.7bln. Consequently, long positioning in the greenback is at the lowest since mid-November.

The pullback in USD longs had largely stemmed from positioning changes in GBP, NZD and CHF, which all saw net shorts slashed by over $1bln. Following the UK election, bearish bets in the Pound have been cut to a 7-month low as investors continue to take up fresh longs with overall positioning now flat. Elsewhere, the sharp unwind in NZD net shorts persists amid a balanced RBNZ rate outlook, which in turn has left positioning in the currency relatively neutral. Swiss Franc net shorts saw a notable reduction; however, investors continue to hold a sizeable bearish bet in the currency.

Given that the domestic outlook continues to weigh on the Australian Dollar, sentiment remains weak with investors boosting their net shorts in the currency amid a liquidation in gross longs. Elsewhere, CAD bulls continue to reverse course with overall longs cut by $717mln to $851mln.

CFTC FX G10 RANGES AND AVERAGES

US Dollar

US Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT Report

EUR/USD

US Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT ReportUS Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT Report

GBP/USD

Please add a description for the image.US Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT Report

USD/JPY

US Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT ReportUS Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT Report

USD/CHF

US Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT ReportUS Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT Report

USD/CAD

US Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT ReportUS Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT Report

AUD/USD

US Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT ReportUS Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT Report

NZD/USD

US Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT ReportUS Dollar Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Shorts Reduced Sharply, CAD Reversal Persists - COT Report

For a more in-depth analysis on FX, check out the FX Forecast

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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