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US Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT Report

US Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT Report

Justin McQueen, Analyst

COT Report – Analysis and Talking Points

  • US Dollar the Preferred Safe-Haven, Net Longs Highest Since June
  • CAD Bulls Head for the Exit
  • NZD Shorts Remain Extreme

The Predictive Power of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

US Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT Report

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to September 24th, released September 27th)

US Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme – COT Report

The latest CFTC positioning data show that speculators increased their USD net longs by $2.3bln vs G10 currencies to $19.877bln, while overall USD net longs are the largest since June, at $17.366bln. Investors appeared to flock to the USD as the preferred safe-haven with JPY net longs cut by $1.266bln to $1.5bln, while net shorts in the Swiss Franc were doubled to -$1.339bln.

Outflows were observed across risk sensitive currencies as investors slashed net longs in the Canadian Dollar by $1.15bln to $350mln, which largely stemmed from a liquidation in outright longs. Ahead of the RBNZ rate decision, speculators continued to boost their net short positions in the New Zealand Dollar, which remains at very extreme levels, in turn raising the risk of a snap-back higher.

Elsewhere, short-covering persists in GBP, resulting in less excessive speculative shorts, while net shorts in the Euro had been cut by $1.1bln to -$8.36bln as the bearish sentiment stalls, suggesting that the currency may continue to grind lower as opposed to a sharp drop.

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US Dollar

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EUR/USD

US Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT ReportUS Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT Report

GBP/USD

US Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT ReportUS Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT Report

USD/JPY

US Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT ReportUS Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT Report

USD/CHF

US Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT ReportUS Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT Report

USD/CAD

US Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT ReportUS Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT Report

AUD/USD

US Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT ReportUS Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT Report

NZD/USD

US Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT ReportUS Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT Report

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