COT Report – Analysis and Talking Points
- US Dollar Longs Rise $2.3bln
- Euro Shorts Jump on ECB
- GBP Shorts Ease Slightly
- NZD Bearish Sentiment at Extreme Levels
The Predictive Power of the COT Report
Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to September 17th, released September 20th)
Euro Shorts Sharply Rise, GBP Shorts Remain Extreme, CAD Bulls Boosted – COT Report
The latest CFTC positioning data show that speculators boosted their bullish bets in the US Dollar, with net longs rising by $2.33bln against the G10 pairs, while overall net longs rose by $2.8bln. This had largely been sparked by the sharp increase in Euro net shorts of $2.6bln as investors reacted to the ECB meeting through cutting their gross longs 16k contracts to 164k.
Elsewhere, GBP net shorts had been pared slightly with a reduction of $389mln, however, bearish positioning within the currency remains somewhat excessive with shorts outnumbering longs by 5:1. Across commodity currencies, speculators have added to bullish bets on the Canadian Dollar with net longs rising $621mln to $1.5bln, while bearish sentiment in the New Zealand Dollar are at extreme levels as net shorts increase to $2.29bln.
Among the safe-haven currencies, the Japanese Yen saw net longs slashed by $1bln amid the slight improvement in risk-sentiment, while positioning in the Swiss Franc remains relatively neutral.
*16th and 84th percentile highlighted over 3-year period.
US Dollar
