COT Report – Analysis and Talking Points
- US Dollar longs once again reduced
- Investors Seek Haven Currencies (JPY, CHF)
- Euro Bearish Sentiment to Grow Ahead of ECB
The Predictive Power of the COT Report
Source: CFTC DailyFX (Covers up to August 27th, released August 30th)
Japanese Yen Increasingly Bullish, US Dollar Longs Cut – COT Report
The latest CFTC positioning data shows another moderation in US Dollar bullish positions as net longs were reduced by $816mln to $13.682bln vs. G10 currencies. However, the broad changes in positioning has been relatively modest in the week to August 27th.
Japanese Yen net longs continue to rise as investors added $300mln worth of bullish bets, taking the total to $3.9bln. While this is notably elevated, this is still some way from the recent peak of $8.5bln in 2016. Elsewhere, speculators test the nerve of the SNB as CHF net shorts are cut by $937mln to $484mln, keep in mind that this is at a time where the SNB have become increasingly active in stemming the gains in the Swiss Franc.
GBP/USD shorts eased yet again, however, the weekly change had been marginal at best, sentiment remains very negative on the Pound with net shorts totaling $6.8bln. Positioning in the Euro was relatively unchanged, however, following the break below 1.10 and with the ECB September meeting ahead, sentiment in the Euro is to remain bearish.;
US Dollar
GBP/USD
