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COT Analysis and Talking Points

  • Bullish USD Bets Rise, Led by JPY Shorts
  • Speculators Most Bearish on EURUSD
  • IG Client Raise GBPUSD Shorts, Increasing Bullish Contrarian Bias

The Predictive Power of the CoT Report

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Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to March 12th, released March 15th)

Speculators add to USD Bullish Bets, JPY Shorts See Largest Increase

Bullish bets on the US Dollar have continued to pick-up (+552mln vs. G10 FX) with speculators continuing to add to JPY bearish bets, which saw a $887mln increase in net shorts. While speculators remain the most bearish on the Euro, shorts have been covered slightly since the ECB rate decision, which in turn saw $361mln decrease in net-short positioning.

Elsewhere, net positioning in GBP had remained moderately bearish ahead of the Brexit votes throughout the week, which in turn fueled the upside observed in the Pound with gross shorts caught offside. Speculators added to gross AUD shorts and longs, consequently suggesting that investors are uncertain over the near-term direction for the Aussie.

IG CLIENT POSITIONING

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Retail positioning show the largest weekly build in USDCAD longs, while retail traders continued to add to GBPUSD shorts, consequently maintaining the bullish contrarian bias. (For full IG client positioning, click here)

US Dollar

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EURUSD

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GBPUSD

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USDJPY

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USDCHF

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USDCAD

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AUDUSD

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NZDUSD

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KEY TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX