News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USDCAD is weaker in the aftermath of OPEC+'s decision to hold output steady, falling to trade back around the 1.2600 level. The pair fell to its lowest level in nearly three years during last week's volatility, rebounded to a high of 1.2730, and has then edged lower. $USD $CAD https://t.co/QBVe8X5nVO
  • Russia reportedly has been given an exemption from OPEC+ supply deal - Delegates
  • The Canadian Dollar is surging alongside the rise in oil prices following OPEC+'s decision to hold output steady. $CADJPY has risen above 85.00 to trade at its highest levels since late 2018. $CAD $JPY https://t.co/YzikqjWyvT
  • $WTI Crude Oil is extending its gains, rising above 64.00 to trade at its highest levels in over a year. $OIL $USO https://t.co/7aFsMmJd7x
  • OPEC+ decides not to hike output by 500kbpd in April - Delegate Oil prices at highs of the day https://t.co/UBAtzuEs0b
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.29% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.29% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.21% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.26% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.53% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/dULwFuQVcF
  • OPEC+ is close to keeping output unchanged in April - Delegates #OOTT
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.09% US 500: 0.04% France 40: 0.04% FTSE 100: -0.13% Germany 30: -0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/raVqHjfXWM
  • RT @Amena__Bakr: Saudi Arabia is proposing a rollover for April and May- delegates #OOTT #opec
  • BUZZ starts trading today. An ETF that invests in larger market cap companies with the strongest positive sentiment in social media. That's where we are now
Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

Paul Robinson, Strategist

CoT Highlights:

  • Euro large specs shortest again since March 2017
  • Sellers show up in crude oil for an 8th week in a row
  • Large speculator profiles for other major currencies/markets

See theIG Client Sentiment pagefor a timelier look at sentiment in major currencies and markets.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., last week’s report wasn’t released until yesterday, an occurrence which happens a couple of times a year around holidays. There weren’t any significant one-week changes to take note of, for the most part a continuation of prior themes. The short position held by large speculators in the Euro grew to its largest since March of last year while the same group of traders continued to hit the bid in crude oil.

On Fridays (most weeks) the CFTC releases a detailed report of traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. Outlined in the table below are key stats concerning the positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.), excluding small speculators and commercial traders.

‘Large specs’ are known to typically employ trend-following strategies, and as such, they tend to add to long positions and reduce shorts in uptrends while reducing long positions and increasing shorts in downtrends. When analyzing the data, we take into consideration the direction of their position, magnitude of changes, as well as extremes.

Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks.

CFTC CoT data

See what fundamental and technical drivers are at work in the Q4 Trading Forecasts.

Euro large specs shortest again since March 2017

Large specs added to their net-short in the Euro by a count of over 10k contracts, expanding the position to -47k, the largest short held since March 2017. It was the 7th time out of the past eight weeks since turning net-short that the position has grown. With the trend pointed firmly lower since earlier in the year more selling looks likely to be ahead as no major extreme has yet been met to suggest the trend is saturated.

Euro Positioning Chart

EUR/USD positioning chart

Sellers show up in crude oil for an 8th week in a row

Last week crude oil smashed through trend support, and with it sellers made it the 8th consecutive week of selling. It’s the smallest net long in about 14 months. Crude oil looks oversold, but with momentum so strong it’s a risky market to be searching for a low in. Some of last week’s selling wasn’t captured in the most recent report due to the tally only extending through last Tuesday, but if after seeing such a large reduction there is a suddenly outsized round of selling it may indicate an inflection point which could point to a tradeable low.

Crude Oil w/Positioning Chart (Oversold bounce soon?)

Crude oil positioning chart

Other markets:

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

British Pound

Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

Japanese Yen

Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

Canadian Dollar

Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

Swiss Franc

Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

Australian Dollar

Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

New Zealand Dollar

Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

Gold

Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

Silver

Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

Copper

Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

S&P 500 (E-mini)

Weekly CoT Update for Euro, Crude Oil, and Other Major Contracts

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES