0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Canadian Dollar gained with government bond yields. Might USD/CAD find its way to current 2020 lows? Canada’s benchmark stock index, the TSX Composite, faces the March high.Get your $USDCAD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/0Ba8E2S7vC https://t.co/JLUTzF6xlY
  • IG Client Sentiment is warning that the S&P 500, gold prices and AUD/USD could fall ahead as upside exposure accumulates. What are key technical levels to watch for next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/YsBypn73vy https://t.co/erPb9HMRVc
  • The US Dollar could be readying to rise against the Singapore Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah ahead. Will USD/PHP and USD/MYR also follow this outlook? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/xvMPZha5SB https://t.co/P9QLmnY1Fg
  • The Euro has been struggling to maintain its upside momentum. Is EUR/USD readying to turn lower? EUR/AUD may be aiming to rise, but has EUR/CAD topped? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/vlJM3iQIYS https://t.co/8FGl10wDto
  • Third consecutive weekly gain in the #SP500 as of today's close, rising 0.63% #Fed balance sheet gained by 0.18% over the same period after shrinking -0.06% previously Generally speaking, the size of the b/s has remained more or less unchanged for a month https://t.co/0TrEA5RGmA
  • The outlook for gold might look a little tenuous at the moment, but this won’t be the first time a strong bull market has shown signs of a potential top due to short-term price action. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/N8a84hRnHN https://t.co/jCEkFzCxEr
  • Well, I don't know who has had it worse this week: Barca or Kodak
  • GBP/USD is either treading water at resistance and is nearing a breakout or is working on developing a top. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/RnrBCFE3gt https://t.co/bDWWjzT57m
  • Stop watching the Champions League game. The FX markets are still open
  • After a swift recovery from the March 2020 low, EUR/USD price action has been in favor of the bulls. Get your EUR/USD market update here: https://t.co/goRwqwO1iC https://t.co/S3LsxMOP1E
Weekly CoT Update for USD, Euro, Crude Oil & More

Weekly CoT Update for USD, Euro, Crude Oil & More

2018-11-12 11:45:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
Share:

CoT Highlights:

  • USD bullish bets mixed, Euro net-short keeps growing
  • Crude oil large specs continue hitting bids amid sharp decline
  • Large speculator profile updates for other major currencies/markets

See the IG Client Sentiment pagefor a timelier look at sentiment in major currencies and markets.

Friday’s CoT report showed a mixed bag with regards to Dollar bullish bets. There were reductions versus the Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, New Zealand Dollar, and Australian Dollar, while more buying took place in the DXY index and against the Euro, Pound, and Swiss Franc. Amidst crude oil’s precipitous decline large speculators continue to hit bids at an aggressive but not ‘panicky’ pace; big trend support coming up.

On Fridays the CFTC releases a detailed report of traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. Outlined in the table below are key stats concerning the positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.), excluding small speculators and commercial traders.

‘Large specs’ are known to typically employ trend-following strategies, and as such, they tend to add to long positions and reduce shorts in uptrends while reducing long positions and increasing shorts in downtrends. When analyzing the data, we take into consideration the direction of their position, magnitude of changes, as well as extremes.

Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks.

CFTC CoT data table

USD bullish bets mixed, Euro net-short keeps growing

Large specs have been adding to bullish US Dollar Index (DXY) bets at an impressively persistent pace. Their net-long increased for the 27th time in 29 weeks. In the Euro, it was the 6th week in a row the net-short grew. At nearly -47k contracts it is the shortest large specs have been since the early-part of last year. Today, the important 11300 level I discussed over the weekend broke. More losses look to be in store in the short-term, at the least.

Euro Positioning Chart

Euro large speculators' positioning

EUR/USD Price Chart (Trading below 11300)

eur/usd daily price chart, 11300 level

Crude oil large specs continue hitting bids amid sharp decline

As one would expect given the large decline in oil, large specs have been hitting bids at an aggressive clip. The 4-week change of -124k contracts has only been exceeded on 2 other occasions, once in each of the past 2 years. But given the size of the drop one might think selling would have been even more aggressive (perhaps that is yet to come).

There is a very important trend-line just below, extending off the notable February 2016 low. Given how fierce the decline has been a bounce looks likely on a first test of long-term trend support, but should it break at some point longs could really start hitting bids at a ‘panicky’ pace.

Crude Oil Positioning Chart (Feb ’16 t-line near)

Crude oil positioning chart, Feb '16 t-line near

See what fundamental and technical drivers are at work in the Q4 Trading Forecasts.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Weekly CoT Update for USD, Euro, Crude Oil & More

British Pound

Weekly CoT Update for USD, Euro, Crude Oil & More

British Pound

Weekly CoT Update for USD, Euro, Crude Oil & More

Canadian Dollar

Weekly CoT Update for USD, Euro, Crude Oil & More

Swiss Franc

Weekly CoT Update for USD, Euro, Crude Oil & More

Australian Dollar

Weekly CoT Update for USD, Euro, Crude Oil & More

Australian Dollar

Weekly CoT Update for USD, Euro, Crude Oil & More

Gold

Weekly CoT Update for USD, Euro, Crude Oil & More

Copper

Weekly CoT Update for USD, Euro, Crude Oil & More

S&P 500 (E-mini)

Weekly CoT Update for USD, Euro, Crude Oil & More

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.