Weekly CoT Update: Speculative Selling in Gold Proving Untimely
- Large specs addition to gold short proving untimely
- First test of resistance at 1235/40, then Dec ’15 t-line
- Large spec profiles for major FX and markets
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The most recently released CoT report showed more selling in gold by large speculators despite it stuck in a trading range, and is now proving to have been an untimely move. Otherwise this past week’s report wasn’t filled with any major shifts, just a continued theme of a generally bullish outlook for the US dollar.
Every Friday the CFTC releases a detailed report of traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. Outlined in the table below are key stats concerning the positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.). This group of traders largely employ trend-following strategies, and as such, their net long exposure typically increases in uptrends while net short positioning increases in downtrends. When analyzing the data, we take into consideration the direction of their position, magnitude of changes, as well as extremes.
Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks.
Large specs addition to gold short proving untimely
Back in August large speculators turned net short gold for the first time since 2002, and despite the precious metal going into a tight trading range this group of traders continued to sell. The most recent round of hitting bids made it the 4th week in a row, adding by a net count of over 16k contracts.
Given the CoT reports show one-week position changes ending on Tuesday, the most recent maneuver is proving untimely with the $30 rally on Thursday and continued strength to start the week. Look for next week’s CoT report to reflect short-covering. The squeeze higher in the near-term has room up to 1235/40 before running into its first test of price resistance. On an aggressive move higher the underside of the December 2015 trend-line could get tested near 1260.
Gold Positioning Chart
Gold Daily Chart (Propelled higher out of range
See what fundamental and technical drivers are at work in the recently released Q4 Trading Forecasts.
Large speculator profiles for major FX & markets:
US Dollar Index (DXY)
New Zealand Dollar
S&P 500 (E-mini)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.