CoT Highlights:
- Large specs sell the euro and Japanese yen
- Gold net-short continues to slowly grow
- Large spec profiles for major FX and markets
For a timelier look at sentiment in major currencies and markets, see the IG Client Sentiment page.
Friday’s report was relatively quiet, with the USD bullish theme remaining largely intact. The week-over-week changes were relatively mixed. Large speculators pushed positioning back net-short euros and sold the Japanese yen fairly aggressively. Gold traders continue to add to net-short position, albeit it as a slow pace.
Every Friday the CFTC releases a detailed report of traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. Outlined in the table below are key stats concerning the positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.). This group of traders largely employ trend-following strategies, and as such, their net long exposure typically increases in uptrends while net short positioning increases in downtrends. When analyzing the data, we take into consideration the direction of their position, magnitude of changes, as well as extremes.
Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks.
Large specs sell the euro and Japanese yen
Euro positioning isn’t at an absolute extreme given large specs are short only 7.1k contracts, however; the activity could be construed as fairly extreme since it was just earlier this year that they held long nearly 150k contracts. Taking the two dynamics into consideration, though, there isn’t a lot of information to be gleaned from the report at this time.
Euro Positioning Chart
In the past two weeks, the net-short held in the Japanese yen has nearly doubled with just over 50k contracts added. This short-term extreme came at a time when JPY was hitting support against USD (or, USD/JPY at resistance). Last week, we asked whether resistance in USD/JPY could be broken, as momentum hasn’t been very sustainable for the pair for quite some time. As it turns out, so far, those levels are holding in place as a ceiling in the mid-11400s and extreme positioning changes are proving exhaustive.
Japanese Yen Positioning Chart
Gold net-short continues to slowly grow
Large speculators added over 4k contracts to their net-short, bringing the total to -21.8k. It’s not a very large net-short, but considering this group of traders until this year hadn’t been net-short since 2002 it is noteworthy. Also, in the past year we’ve seen positioning change by over -275k contracts, a solid move. Gold doesn’t look very healthy and perhaps large specs are finally on the right side of the downtrend off the 2011 peak, but should gold turn around one of these days, the precious metal could draw in large buying interest at some point. For now, we’re sticking with the trend until it changes, though.
Gold Positioning Chart
See what fundamental and technical drivers are at work in the recently released Q4 Trading Forecasts.
Large speculator profiles for major FX & markets:
US Dollar Index (DXY)
British Pound
Canadian Dollar
Swiss Franc
Australian Dollar
New Zealand Dollar
Silver
Copper
S&P 500 (E-mini)
Resources for Forex & CFD Traders
Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
