News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/IRly5vINGA
  • Gold prices surged to a 14-week high as the 10-year Treasury yield fell for a third day. Inflation fears and viral resurgence bolstered the appeal of the yellow metal, as Chinese buyers returned to the market. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/05/17/Gold-Prices-at-14-Week-High-as-Yields-Fall-Chinese-Buyers-Return.html https://t.co/0M7qQ73c65
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.68%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 84.03%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/NoT4omixyH
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.07% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.23% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.40% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.48% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/GBc23P8NQJ
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.17% Germany 30: -0.05% FTSE 100: -0.10% US 500: -0.28% Wall Street: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/zEojicMMU8
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/zyTHSyUiMd
  • 🇹🇭 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) Actual: 0.2% Expected: -0.8% Previous: 1.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-17
  • 🇹🇭 GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1) Actual: -2.6% Expected: -3.3% Previous: -4.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-17
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.63% Gold: 0.37% Oil - US Crude: 0.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/SnUeYQAKdi
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.02% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.24% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.35% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/d3OdjbE19m
CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

Paul Robinson, Strategist

CoT Highlights:

  • Dollar getting more extreme, euro large specs turn net-short
  • Large speculators turn net-short gold for the first time since 2002
  • Last week short-term capitulation-like price action, maybe a bigger sign?

For a timelier indicator of sentiment in major currencies and markets, see the IG Client Sentiment page.

The latest CoT report continued to highlight a dollar-bullish theme, with large speculators buying the US Dollar Index (DXY) for a 17th week in a row and turning net-short the euro for the first time since the 1st half of last year. Furthermore, the biggest speculators in the futures market collectively turned short gold for the first time since August 2002. Have they given up after all this time, and was last week’s flush-and-reverse a sign that gold may reverse course?

On Friday’s the CFTC releases a detailed report of traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. Outlined in the table below are key stats concerning the positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.). This group of traders largely employ trend-following strategies, and as such, their net long exposure typically increases in uptrends while net short positioning increases in downtrends. When analyzing the data, we take into consideration the direction of their position, magnitude of changes, as well as extremes.

Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks.

CFTC CoT large speculator stats

Large speculators turn net-short gold for the first time since 2002

For the first time in almost exactly 16 years, large speculators turned net-short gold; they did so by a margin of 3.7k contracts, a -16.3k drop in net-positioning from the week before. Perhaps we are seeing the signs of a market throwing in the towel, giving up on a position the trend-followers have collectively held through all the big ups and downs.

It may take some more time for this positioning to have any real meaning as futures positioning is more of a macro indication of sentiment/positioning. But for the near-term we may have at least seen a bottom form last week, as per price action showing signs of capitulation by longs. The strong decline and key-reversal on Thursday point to a market that wants to rally some more in the near-term (perhaps longer). As noted last week, looking for gold to erase its most recent leg lower and rally to around 1210 for starters.

See what fundamental and technical drivers are at work this quarter in the Q3 Gold Forecast.

Gold Large Spec CoT Profile Chart

Gold large spec CoT profile chart

Gold Daily Price Chart (Flush-and-reverse)

Gold daily chart, flush-and-reverse

Large speculator profiles for major FX & markets:

US Dollar Index (DXY)

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

Euro

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

British Pound

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

Japanese Yen

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

Canadian Dollar

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

Swiss Franc

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

Australian Dollar

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

New Zealand Dollar

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

Silver

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

Copper

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

Crude Oil

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

S&P 500 (E-mini)

CoT Update: Large Speculators Net-short Gold First Time in a Long Time

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES