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CoT Highlights:

  • Net buying seen in USD contract for 15th week in a row
  • Large speculative profiles for major currencies/markets

For a timelier indicator of sentiment in major currencies and markets, see the IG Client Sentiment page.

The latest CoT report showed more of the same – broad speculative buying in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The theme of a stronger dollar and increase in long exposure held by large specs continues its trend since April, and while there are a couple of outsized multi-year dislocations out there in currencies (i.e. AUD & CHF), there is still room to go in overall positioning before this becomes the case with USD as a whole. The trend remains in favor of additional dollar buying.

Every Friday the CFTC releases a detailed overview of traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. Outlined in the table are key stats concerning the positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.). This group of traders typically employ trend-following strategies, and as such, their net long exposure increases in uptrends and net short exposure in downtrends. When analyzing the data, we take into consideration the direction of their position, magnitude of changes, as well as extremes.

Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks.

CFTC CoT data

Net buying seen in USD contract for 15th week in a row

The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a positive net change in large speculative positioning for the 15th week in a row, with the streak dating back to April 20. At +28.5k contracts, though, the net position is not extreme when compared to the +53k seen last year or record long in 2015 clocking in at +79.7k. Perhaps we will soon see a break in the streak, but there is more room for additional dollar buying in the weeks ahead.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Large Spec Positioning

USD index cot large spec positioning

US Dollar Index Daily Chart (Trending Higher)

USD index daily chart, poised to trade higher

See how sentiment could tie in with the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.

Large speculator profiles for major FX & markets:

Euro

CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

British Pound

CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

Japanese Yen

CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

Canadian Dollar

CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

Swiss Franc

CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

Australian Dollar

CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

New Zealand Dollar

CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

Gold

CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

Silver

CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

Copper

CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

Crude Oil

CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

S&P 500 (E-mini)

CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX