- Net buying seen in USD contract for 15th week in a row
- Large speculative profiles for major currencies/markets
For a timelier indicator of sentiment in major currencies and markets, see the IG Client Sentiment page.
The latest CoT report showed more of the same – broad speculative buying in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The theme of a stronger dollar and increase in long exposure held by large specs continues its trend since April, and while there are a couple of outsized multi-year dislocations out there in currencies (i.e. AUD & CHF), there is still room to go in overall positioning before this becomes the case with USD as a whole. The trend remains in favor of additional dollar buying.
Every Friday the CFTC releases a detailed overview of traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. Outlined in the table are key stats concerning the positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.). This group of traders typically employ trend-following strategies, and as such, their net long exposure increases in uptrends and net short exposure in downtrends. When analyzing the data, we take into consideration the direction of their position, magnitude of changes, as well as extremes.
Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks.
Net buying seen in USD contract for 15th week in a row
The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a positive net change in large speculative positioning for the 15th week in a row, with the streak dating back to April 20. At +28.5k contracts, though, the net position is not extreme when compared to the +53k seen last year or record long in 2015 clocking in at +79.7k. Perhaps we will soon see a break in the streak, but there is more room for additional dollar buying in the weeks ahead.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Large Spec Positioning
US Dollar Index Daily Chart (Trending Higher)
See how sentiment could tie in with the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.
Large speculator profiles for major FX & markets:
New Zealand Dollar
S&P 500 (E-mini)
Resources for Forex & CFD Traders
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX