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CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

Paul Robinson, Strategist

CoT Highlights:

  • Large speculative position in gold smallest since January 2016
  • Large spec profile updates for major currencies/markets

For a timelier indicator of sentiment in major currencies and markets, see the IG Client Sentiment page.

This past week didn’t bring with it any major changes in speculative positioning. A generally bullish USD theme among large speculators remains in place. Positioning profiles of major currencies show they are as bearish versus USD as they have been in over a year and significantly longer in some contracts. This has unsurprisingly led to a material trimming in gold longs, with large specs’ holding their smallest position since January 2016.

Every Friday the CFTC releases a detailed overview of traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. In the table below we’ve outlined key stats concerning the positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.). This group of traders typically employ trend-following strategies. When analyzing the data, we take into consideration the direction of their position, magnitude of changes, as well as extremes.

Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks.

CFTC CoT large speculator data

Large speculative position in gold smallest since January 2016

Large specs trimmed their net-long by over 23k contracts this past week, the 8th reduction in 13 weeks. At 57.8k contracts, this is the smallest long held since January 2016, just after the Fed began raising rates. In the past, when we’ve seen positioning reduced into this territory down to the zero-line gold has typically bounced, even if only temporarily before resuming lower.

See how sentiment may tie in with the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.

Gold Large Speculator Position Profile

Gold large speculative position profile

Large speculator positioning profiles:

US Dollar Index (DXY)

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

Euro

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

British Pound

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

Japanese Yen

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

Canadian Dollar

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

Swiss Franc

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

Australian Dollar

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

New Zealand Dollar

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

Gold

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

Silver

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

Copper

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

Crude Oil

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

S&P 500 (E-mini)

CoT Update – Speculative Gold Long Smallest Since January 2016

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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