CoT Highlights:
- Euro and AUD see only slight increase in longs
- GBP large speculators sell for 3rd week in a row
- Another week of strong selling in CAD
- Gold net-long edged higher, but near smallest in a year
For a timelier indicator of sentiment in major currencies and markets, see the IG Client Sentiment page.
As we highlighted last week, there has been a strong shift in currency positioning among the largest speculators, which comes as no surprise given the rally in USD. The most recent report saw a small rebound in a couple of currencies (Euro & Australian dollar) with the British pound undergoing modest selling and heavy selling in the Canadian dollar. The perpetual net-long in the gold market remains near its smallest in the past year.
Every Friday (or Monday in this case due to the July 4th holiday) the CFTC releases an overview of traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. In the table below we’ve outlined key statistics in the category of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.). This group of traders typically employ trend-following strategies. When analyzing the data, we take into consideration the direction of their position, magnitude of changes, as well as extremes.
Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks.
As the second half of the year kicks off today, see how sentiment could tie in with our just released DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.
Large speculators remain net-long the euro by a count of 36.7k contracts after adding a small amount last week. This has the position profile in the bottom 4% of its range over the past year.
Euro
A small reduction was seen in the Australian dollar’s biggest short since 2015; it shrunk by 1.7k contracts to -39.2k.
Australian Dollar
The net short held by large specs in the British pound grew for a third week in a row and a by 7.2k contracts to -28.8k, pushing net positioning to the bottom 12% of its 52-week range. Even though it’s nearing the largest short in the past year, it’s nowhere near the -107k contracts held in April 2017.
British Pound
Canadian dollar sellers were at it again in aggressive fashion, increasing their net short by 16.6k contracts after selling 18.8k contracts the week before. This has the total net position stretched to its largest short in a year at -49.4k contracts.
Canadian Dollar
Gold large specs have been long for quite some time (as in years…and years), but we’ve recently seen the dollar put pressure on the commodity and with it a reduction in net longs nearly matching its smallest in a year. At 78.3k contracts, position size is at 6% of its 52-week range.
Gold
Profiles for Large Speculators in major contracts
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Japanese Yen
Swiss Franc
New Zealand Dollar
Silver
Copper
Crude Oil
S&P 500 (E-mini)
Resources for Forex & CFD Traders
Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
