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COT: Japanese Yen & New Zealand Dollar Positioning Move to New Extremes

COT: Japanese Yen & New Zealand Dollar Positioning Move to New Extremes

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • Japanese Yen large speculators largest net short position since January 2014
  • New Zealand dollar large specs continue to sell at a furious pace
  • Charts with large spec positioning for major currencies & markets

The COT report is a longer-term sentiment indicator – for a short-term view on sentiment, check out IG Client Sentiment data.

Typically, every Friday the CFTC releases the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. Due to a federal holiday on Friday, the most recent report was published yesterday. In the table below, we’ve outlined key statistics regarding the net positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.); also known to be trend-followers in regards to the type of trading strategies deployed.

Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks.

Noteworthy developments

Japanese Yen: The total net-short position among large speculators is now the largest since January 2014. In fact, at nearly -128k contracts, net positioning has grown to one of the largest on record. While further adding of shorts is certainly a possibility, it does warn that should momentum begin to turn in the Yen the substantial build-up in shorts could fuel a turnaround.

See this guide for ideas on how to Build Confidence in Trading.

New Zealand dollar: Large specs have been net-sellers for over three months since building the largest long position on record. The unwind from long to short has been done-so in spectacular fashion as their positioning goes from record long speeding towards the record short position seen in 2015. At -11.2k there is room to go before reaching the -19.6k seen then, but at the recent rate of selling it could be there in the next few weeks if we don’t soon see a bounce. It appears that at some point we will see a sharp turnaround in kiwi based on the extreme move in positioning in such a short period of time, but until price action firms up, sellers will continue to have the upperhand.

Other futures contracts and large speculator positioning:

Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.