News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • It was a quiet week in Aussie as $AUDUSD put in its second consecutive week of indecision. But taking a more granular look highlights the potential for a reversal scenario. Get your #currencies update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/PPK20nubAf https://t.co/0nfmRRFNnz
  • The S&P 500 pushed the market's comfort with a head-and-shoulders pattern through Friday's close. What should we look for in technical patterns, overlapping fundamental tides and speculative positioning for the likes of $EURUSD next week? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/09/19/EURUSD-Pressure-Building-while-Anxious-Traders-Weigh-Did-SP-500-Break.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/lgVJVwi8th
  • Sterling remains trapped by overarching fundamentals drivers and both $GBPUSD and $EURGBP are going to have to wait until the Brexit dust settles. Get your #currencies update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/vF1K1cy0nd https://t.co/NSA7qiQihc
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:https://t.co/1oygcFMFNs https://t.co/d9EmTOHyTv
  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true.Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here:https://t.co/A4dqGMPylo https://t.co/xqbUxwWgTZ
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here: https://t.co/JdvW6HNuqV https://t.co/Gi8LHCT5sB
  • The AB=CD pattern is simple once you know how to spot it and draw the proper Fibonacci retracements. Make your trading strategy as simple as ABCD here: https://t.co/AKmlmaAZBS https://t.co/FFmRYyx4ou
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here: https://t.co/aVAzFypAg1 https://t.co/r7aJb4qpqc
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/ERyiY47G5H https://t.co/fIGDaDW21V
  • ...even more incredible is net speculative futures positioning in $EURUSD, rounding off from a record net long position...and it hasn't even cleared 1.20... https://t.co/SfyYTMTT1x
COT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZD

COT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZD

2017-10-30 08:23:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
Share:

What’s inside:

  • Large speculators continue to hold tight on euro contracts long, but that could soon change
  • CAD & AUD large specs not budging (especially in the former) despite material price weakness
  • NZD large speculators reduced their once record long to nearly flat, may see a relief bounce

The COT report is a longer-term sentiment indicator – for a short-term view on sentiment, check out IG Client Sentiment data.

Every Friday the CFTC releases the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. In the table below, we’ve outlined key statistics regarding the net positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.); also known to be trend-followers in terms of the type of trading strategies deployed.

Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks.

COT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZD

Noteworthy developments

Euro – At 83.5k contracts, large speculators have reduced their net-long by only about 15k contracts from their largest position seen during the current bullish-cycle of 98.1k, which was just shy of the highest level since 2011 (99.5k) and not too far from the record high in 2007 (119.5k contracts). The smallish reduction comes despite the euro having fallen several hundred pips from its September high. Last week’s break below the ‘neckline’ of the nearly 3-month ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern took place on Thursday, which means the intense selling we saw the final two days of the week and anymore which might come through tomorrow won’t be reported until this Friday’s report. It will be interesting to see if large specs are throwing in the towel as the once-working long position continues to move in reverse.

COT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZD

Canadian dollar: Here is a bunch (large speculators), who despite aggressively declining prices, don’t want to budge on a bullish bias. At 72.3k contracts, their net-long is only off from the current cycle high of 76.4k recorded a couple of weeks ago. Until we see an alleviation in positioning it looks as though pressure will remain on the Canadian dollar for the foreseeable future.

COT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZD

Australian dollar: Large speculators reduced their position for a fourth straight week, but at 57.3k contracts the net-long profile remains quite elevated and not moving lower with anywhere near the same intensity as the price of the currency. Until we see a further unwinding of bullish bets there remains plenty of supply to keep aussie on the defensive.

COT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZD

New Zealand dollar: The recent changes in the positioning profile for this currency stands out from the group, as large speculators in the past three months have taken their largest long position on record of 36k contracts and reduced it to nearly flat (+611) last week. While it has been an extreme move over that period, 10 out of 14 weeks we saw a reduction in position-sizing which one would expect to see given the price action. The 6366 contracts offloaded this past week was the second largest week of selling since the top in July, and with it bringing the net-long to nearly flat, and on that kiwi may be ready to bounce. There is price support in the area, which also backs up the notion that perhaps selling has become overdone in the near-term and kiwi is ready for a relief bounce.

COT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZD

NZDUSD: Weekly

COT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZD

Check out this guide for tips on how to Build Confidence in Trading.

Other futures contracts and large speculator positioning:

COT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZDCOT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZDCOT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZDCOT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZDCOT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZDCOT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZDCOT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZDCOT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZDCOT: Large Specs Stubbornly Long Euro, CAD, AUD, but Fleeing from NZD

Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES