What’s inside:

  • Large speculators in JPY hold short as price continues to weaken
  • CAD longs refuse to sell despite price weakening since early September
  • Large speculator position profiles and graphs for other major currencies and markets

The COT report is a longer-term sentiment indicator – for a short-term view on sentiment, check out IG Client Sentiment data.

Every Friday the CFTC releases the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. In the table below, we’ve outlined key statistics regarding the net positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.); also known to be trend-followers in terms of general strategy deployed.

Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks.

COT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t Budge

Noteworthy developments

Japanese Yen – There continues to be pressure on the Japanese currency as risk trends favor selling of safe-haven assets along with the dollar stabilizing. At a net-short position among large speculators of 101k, it’s in the bottom 10% of net-positioning held over the past year. It appears until we see a material shift in sentiment pressure could remain on the Japanese yen for the foreseeable future.

COT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t Budge

Canadian Dollar: Large speculators are holding stubbornly long the currency since early September despite the loss in value. The overall net-long was reduced by a very modest 1.3k contracts during the most recent reporting period, but since the decline in CAD began back on September 8, large specs have increased their net-long holding by over 20k contracts. It would seem that in order for the currency to have a shot at sustaining a resumption higher we will first need to see a correction in positioning along with the price. The current 75k contracts held is the largest position since the end of 2012.

COT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t Budge

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Other futures contracts and large speculator positioning:

COT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t BudgeCOT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t BudgeCOT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t BudgeCOT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t BudgeCOT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t BudgeCOT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t BudgeCOT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t BudgeCOT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t BudgeCOT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t BudgeCOT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t BudgeCOT Report: JPY Sellers Hold Ground, CAD Large Spec Longs Won’t Budge

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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