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COT: Euro Large Specs Sell, New Zealand Dollar Long Position at Multi-year High

COT: Euro Large Specs Sell, New Zealand Dollar Long Position at Multi-year High

What’s inside:

  • Euro large speculators net sellers for the first time in two months
  • New Zealand dollar net long positioning pops to highest level in over four years
  • Crude oil traders dump contracts for a second week in a row, net long position still historically large

The COT report is a longer-term sentiment indicator – for a short-term view on sentiment, check out IG Client Sentiment data.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is released every Friday, showing market positioning of futures traders as it stands for the week ending on Tuesday. In the table below are the net positions of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.), the change from the prior week, and where the net position stands relative to its 52-week range.

Noteworthy developments

Euro – The net change by large speculators in the euro declined for the first time in two months. It was the largest reduction since October 2015. While the euro has remained relatively unchanged over the past month, it appears large market participants have lost some of their confidence in the single-currency. It’s a reduction from levels not seen since 2011; a relief which could help reload for another move higher as long as price support can continue to hold in the low 11100s.

New Zealand dollar – Large speculators increased their net position by 19860 contracts, the largest weekly jump as far back as data is available. At 21455 contracts, the current net position is the largest since kiwi rolled over back in 2013. After a 500-pip rally in just six weeks, both price and positioning have reached extremes, skewing risk to the down-side.

WTI crude oil – Large specs reduced their still hefty net long position for a second week in a row. At nearly 329k contracts it is well off the record high of 557k contracts seen in February, but still remains historically high.

Other futures contracts and large speculator positioning:

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.