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COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

2016-09-05 16:04:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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  • British pound speculators buy for first time since June
  • Record open interest in silver and copper
  • COT flashes a strong bottom warning for copper

For more analysis and trade setups, visit SB Trade Desk

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The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non-commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated August 30, 2016

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

52 week Percentile

US Dollar

28

Euro

51

British Pound

4

Australian Dollar

90

Japanese Yen

82

Canadian Dollar

94

Swiss Franc

80

Mexican Peso

71

Gold

78

Silver

84

Copper

51

Crude

92

Charts (all charts are continuous contract)

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

US Dollar ICEUS Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro CME Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound CME Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese YenCME Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian DollarCME Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Mexican Peso CME Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Silver COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The plot below price is the 1 week change in aggregated commercial and speculative positions. A high reading indicates strong speculative buying and strong commercial selling and warns of a market top. A low reading indicates strong speculative selling and strong commercial buying and warns of a market bottom. The current reading for this indicator has only been registered once before; in April 2003, which was a major price low. This same method warned of a crude top last week (see here). Crude dropped nearly 7% last week.

Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Capitulation Low is Possible for Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market and co-founder of SB Trade Desk.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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