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Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
  • Euro COT index is extreme - ownership profile returns to June 2014 level
  • Speculators close to flipping to a net long AUD position
  • Most copper buying for large specs since May 2015

For more analysis and trade setups, visit SB Trade Desk

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The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non-commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated January 26th, 2015:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

52 week Percentile

US Dollar

4

Euro

100

British Pound

14

Australian Dollar

92

Japanese Yen

98

Canadian Dollar

31

Swiss Franc

28

Mexican Peso

47

Gold

75

Silver

94

Copper

35

Crude

6

Charts (all charts are continuous contract)

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

US Dollar ICEUS Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro CME Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound CME Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese YenCME Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian DollarCME Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Mexican Peso CME Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold COMEX Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Silver COMEX Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper COMEX Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper COMEX Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The line plotted below price is the 1 week change of net speculative positioning – net commercial positioning. A high reading indicates heavy speculative (trend following) buying and heavy commercial (hedging) selling. The most recent data point is the highest since May 2015 (ended up being a top). The red dots on the chart indicate values at least as high as the most recent data point. High readings have signaled selling opportunities since the 2011 top. As such, a price surge now would indicate a change in trading behavior.

Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract

Euro COT Index is Extreme Again

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market and co-founder of SB Trade Desk.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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