- Euro COT index is extreme - ownership profile returns to June 2014 level
- Speculators close to flipping to a net long AUD position
- Most copper buying for large specs since May 2015
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The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non-commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.
Latest CFTC Release dated January 26th, 2015:
| Week (Data for Tuesdays) | |
|---|---|
| US Dollar | 4 |
| Euro | 100 |
| British Pound | 14 |
| Australian Dollar | 92 |
| Japanese Yen | 98 |
| Canadian Dollar | 31 |
| Swiss Franc | 28 |
| Mexican Peso | 47 |
| Gold | 75 |
| Silver | 94 |
| Copper | 35 |
| Crude | 6 |
Charts (all charts are continuous contract)
Non Commercials (speculators) – Red
Commercials – Blue
Small Speculators – Black
COTDiff (COT Index) – Black
US Dollar ICEUS Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Euro CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
British Pound CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Japanese YenCME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Canadian DollarCME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Mexican Peso CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Gold COMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Silver COMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Copper COMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Copper COMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
The line plotted below price is the 1 week change of net speculative positioning – net commercial positioning. A high reading indicates heavy speculative (trend following) buying and heavy commercial (hedging) selling. The most recent data point is the highest since May 2015 (ended up being a top). The red dots on the chart indicate values at least as high as the most recent data point. High readings have signaled selling opportunities since the 2011 top. As such, a price surge now would indicate a change in trading behavior.
Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele
Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market and co-founder of SB Trade Desk.
