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COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
  • Biggest shift in Yen positioning ever
  • Biggest shift in CAD positioning since March 2013
  • Biggest shift in CHF positioning since September 2007

For more analysis and trade setups, visit SB Trade Desk

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The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non-commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated January 5, 2015:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

52 week Percentile

US Dollar

12

Euro

55

British Pound

20

Australian Dollar

88

Japanese Yen

100

Canadian Dollar

8

Swiss Franc

57

Mexican Peso

18

Gold

16

Silver

29

Copper

29

Crude

0

Charts (all charts are continuous contract)

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

US Dollar ICEUS Continuous Contract

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro CME Continuous Contract

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound CME Continuous Contract

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese YenCME Continuous Contract

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Large speculators have flipped to a net long position (very small) after being net short since October 2012. Large speculators are trend followers and will catch the large move but get chopped up in sideways markets. Irrespective of multi-week pullbacks in Yen, the massive shift in positioning is a clear change in behavior (which is seen in price of course too). For a shorter term look at sentiment, check out SSI.

Canadian DollarCME Continuous Contract

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Mexican Peso CME Continuous Contract

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Silver COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Large Speculators Flip to Net Long Japanese Yen Position

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market and co-founder of SB Trade Desk.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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