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COT-Small British Pound Traders are Most Short Since April Low

COT-Small British Pound Traders are Most Short Since April Low

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
  • British Pound small traders are most short since April low
  • Large AUD speculators add longs at 4th fastest pace of 2015
  • CHF ownership profile warns of a low (USDCHF top)

For more analysis and trade setups, visit SB Trade Desk

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The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non-commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated December 1, 2015:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)
US Dollar26
Euro27
British Pound26
Australian Dollar53
Japanese Yen35
Canadian Dollar24
Swiss Franc0
Mexican Peso78
Gold0
Silver29
Copper24
Crude2

Charts (all charts are continuous contract)

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

US Dollar ICEUS Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro CME Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound CME Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound CME Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Small trader positioning is plotted below price on the 2nd chart. Small trades hold the largest net short position since the April low. In fact, this absolute level of positioning has coincided with a number of price lows in recent years.

Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The rate of change of the COT index is plotted below price (for more on that, read Sentiment in the Forex Market) on the 2nd chart. The current positioning change is the 4th largest of the 2015 (with speculators buying and commercials selling). The implication is that AUD is at risk of pulling back.

Japanese YenCME Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian DollarCME Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Small trader positioning is plotted below price on the 2nd chart. Small trades hold the largest net short position since June 2012. The COT index is on par with the January 2015 and May 2013 readings. This ownership profile warns of a CHF low.

Mexican Peso CME Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold COMEX Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Silver COMEX Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper COMEX Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market and co-founder of SB Trade Desk.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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