- British Pound small traders are most short since April low
- Large AUD speculators add longs at 4th fastest pace of 2015
- CHF ownership profile warns of a low (USDCHF top)
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The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non-commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.
Latest CFTC Release dated December 1, 2015:
| Week (Data for Tuesdays) | |
|---|---|
| US Dollar | 26 |
| Euro | 27 |
| British Pound | 26 |
| Australian Dollar | 53 |
| Japanese Yen | 35 |
| Canadian Dollar | 24 |
| Swiss Franc | 0 |
| Mexican Peso | 78 |
| Gold | 0 |
| Silver | 29 |
| Copper | 24 |
| Crude | 2 |
Charts (all charts are continuous contract)
Non Commercials (speculators) – Red
Commercials – Blue
Small Speculators – Black
COTDiff (COT Index) – Black
US Dollar ICEUS Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Euro CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
British Pound CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
British Pound CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Small trader positioning is plotted below price on the 2nd chart. Small trades hold the largest net short position since the April low. In fact, this absolute level of positioning has coincided with a number of price lows in recent years.
Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
The rate of change of the COT index is plotted below price (for more on that, read Sentiment in the Forex Market) on the 2nd chart. The current positioning change is the 4th largest of the 2015 (with speculators buying and commercials selling). The implication is that AUD is at risk of pulling back.
Japanese YenCME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Canadian DollarCME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Small trader positioning is plotted below price on the 2nd chart. Small trades hold the largest net short position since June 2012. The COT index is on par with the January 2015 and May 2013 readings. This ownership profile warns of a CHF low.
Mexican Peso CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Gold COMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Silver COMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Copper COMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele
Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market and co-founder of SB Trade Desk.
