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Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Latest CFTC Release dated June 19, 2012:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

52 week Percentile / Comment (if applicable)

US Dollar

98

Euro

22

British Pound

59

Australian Dollar

8

Japanese Yen

33

Canadian Dollar

43

Swiss Franc

4

Gold

29

Silver

12

Copper

4

Crude

4

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A light blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A light red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Crosses above and below 0 are in bold. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Charts

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff – Black

Volume on bottom

***

US Dollar Index positioning is little changed from the previous week when speculative longs reached a record as did commercial shorts. Remember what was noted last week; “Results are mixed in the weeks and months that follow a peak in the COT Index. A major top formed in 2005. Dips that lasted 1 to 3 weeks within strong uptrends occurred in 2008 and 2011 and a sideways market took place in 2010 at roughly the midpoint of a strong uptrend. If the current scenario is more like 2008, 2010, or 2011, then the USD should find support this week or next.” The USD has rocketed off of the low which increases confidence in the bullish bias. AUD positioning has moderated significantly, which opens the door for additional selling to emerge.

US Dollar

Australian_Dollar_Positioning_Moderates_Significantly_body_usd.png, Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro

Australian_Dollar_Positioning_Moderates_Significantly_body_eur.png, Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound

Australian_Dollar_Positioning_Moderates_Significantly_body_GBP.png, Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian Dollar

Australian_Dollar_Positioning_Moderates_Significantly_body_AUD.png, Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese Yen

Australian_Dollar_Positioning_Moderates_Significantly_body_JPY.png, Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian Dollar

Australian_Dollar_Positioning_Moderates_Significantly_body_cad.png, Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc

Australian_Dollar_Positioning_Moderates_Significantly_body_chf.png, Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold

Australian_Dollar_Positioning_Moderates_Significantly_body_gold.png, Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Silver

Australian_Dollar_Positioning_Moderates_Significantly_body_silver.png, Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper

Australian_Dollar_Positioning_Moderates_Significantly_body_copper.png, Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude

Australian_Dollar_Positioning_Moderates_Significantly_body_crude.png, Australian Dollar Positioning Moderates Significantly

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie, e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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