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Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Latest CFTC Release dated May 08, 2012:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

52 week Percentile / Comment (if applicable)

US Dollar

82

Euro

0 – commercial longs and speculative shorts at record levels

British Pound

76

Australian Dollar

0 – commercials turn long and speculators turn short for first time since 2008 and record

Japanese Yen

24

Canadian Dollar

76

Swiss Franc

2 - positioning difference turns from greatest since 2007

Gold

0 – spec longs smallest since 2008

Silver

4

Copper

0 – positioning difference is greatest since 2009

Crude

59

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A light blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A light red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Crosses above and below 0 are in bold. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Charts

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff – Black

Volume on bottom

***

The latest developments in positioning warrant additional comments. As you review the charts, keep in mind that the COT Index (bottom line) moves with price and extreme levels tend to give way to at least a countertrend move. This week’s open (USD gap lower) underscores this point. Expect continued 2 way action into early June.

US Dollar

Euro_and_Australian_Dollar_Positioning_are_Extremely_Stretched_body_usd.png, Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro

Euro_and_Australian_Dollar_Positioning_are_Extremely_Stretched_body_eur.png, Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound

Euro_and_Australian_Dollar_Positioning_are_Extremely_Stretched_body_GBP.png, Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian Dollar

Euro_and_Australian_Dollar_Positioning_are_Extremely_Stretched_body_AUD.png, Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese Yen

Euro_and_Australian_Dollar_Positioning_are_Extremely_Stretched_body_JPY.png, Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian Dollar

Euro_and_Australian_Dollar_Positioning_are_Extremely_Stretched_body_cad.png, Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc

Euro_and_Australian_Dollar_Positioning_are_Extremely_Stretched_body_chf.png, Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold

Euro_and_Australian_Dollar_Positioning_are_Extremely_Stretched_body_gold.png, Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Silver

Euro_and_Australian_Dollar_Positioning_are_Extremely_Stretched_body_silver.png, Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper

Euro_and_Australian_Dollar_Positioning_are_Extremely_Stretched_body_copper.png, Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude

Euro_and_Australian_Dollar_Positioning_are_Extremely_Stretched_body_crude.png, Euro and Australian Dollar Positioning are Extremely Stretched

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie, e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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