Euro and Australian Dollar COT Positioning at Records

2012-05-28 16:41:00 Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Latest CFTC Release dated May 08, 2012:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)	52 week Percentile / Comment (if applicable)
US Dollar	67
Euro	0 – commercial longs and speculative shorts at record levels
British Pound	88
Australian Dollar	0 – commercials turn long and speculators turn short for first time since 2008 and record
Japanese Yen	22
Canadian Dollar	84
Swiss Franc	0 - positioning difference is greatest since 2007
Gold	0 - positioning difference is greatest since 2008
Silver	6
Copper	0 – positioning difference is greatest since 2009
Crude	65

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A light blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A light red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Crosses above and below 0 are in bold. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Charts

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff – Black

Volume on bottom

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The latest developments in positioning warrant additional comments. As you review the charts, keep in mind that the COT Index (bottom line) moves with price and extreme levels tend to give way to at least a countertrend move. This week’s open (USD gap lower) underscores this point. Expect continued 2 way action into early June.

US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro