Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

2012-02-06 19:57:00 Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Latest CFTC Release dated January 31, 2012:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)	Comment
US Dollar
Euro
British Pound
Australian Dollar
Japanese Yen
Canadian Dollar
Swiss Franc
Gold
Silver
Copper
Crude

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A light blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A light red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Crosses above and below 0 are in bold. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. This is not always true however (especially for equity futures) –group behavior varies across markets. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Charts

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff – Black

Volume on bottom

US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro speculative positions are no longer at a record. This is not necessarily bullish however. In fact, a strategy that buys following a one week decrease from record shorts and goes short following a one week decrease from record longs generates negative equity curves for holding periods of 13 weeks to 52 weeks.

British Pound