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Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Latest CFTC Release dated January 31, 2012:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

Comment

US Dollar

Euro

British Pound

Australian Dollar

Japanese Yen

Canadian Dollar

Swiss Franc

Gold

Silver

Copper

Crude

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A light blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A light red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Crosses above and below 0 are in bold. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. This is not always true however (especially for equity futures) –group behavior varies across markets. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Charts

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff – Black

Volume on bottom

US Dollar

Euro_Speculative_Shorts_Moderate_from_Record_body_usd.png, Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro

Euro_Speculative_Shorts_Moderate_from_Record_body_eur.png, Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro speculative positions are no longer at a record. This is not necessarily bullish however. In fact, a strategy that buys following a one week decrease from record shorts and goes short following a one week decrease from record longs generates negative equity curves for holding periods of 13 weeks to 52 weeks.

British Pound

Euro_Speculative_Shorts_Moderate_from_Record_body_gbp.png, Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian Dollar

Euro_Speculative_Shorts_Moderate_from_Record_body_aud.png, Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese Yen

Euro_Speculative_Shorts_Moderate_from_Record_body_jpy.png, Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian Dollar

Euro_Speculative_Shorts_Moderate_from_Record_body_cad.png, Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc

Euro_Speculative_Shorts_Moderate_from_Record_body_chf.png, Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold

Euro_Speculative_Shorts_Moderate_from_Record_body_gold.png, Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Silver

Euro_Speculative_Shorts_Moderate_from_Record_body_silver.png, Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper

Euro_Speculative_Shorts_Moderate_from_Record_body_copper.png, Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude

Euro_Speculative_Shorts_Moderate_from_Record_body_crude.png, Euro Speculative Shorts Moderate from Record

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie, e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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