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COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

2011-07-05 19:54:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:

Latest CFTC Release dated June 28, 2011:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

Comment

US Dollar

COT difference increasing from a low is bullish

Euro

British Pound

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish

Australian Dollar

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish

Japanese Yen

Canadian Dollar

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish

Swiss Franc

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish

Gold

Silver

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish

Copper

Crude

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish

E-Mini S&P

E-Mini NASDAQ

30 Yr US Bond

10 Yr US Note

2 Yr US Note

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 13 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 13 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. This is not always true however (especially for equity futures) –group behavior varies across markets. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Charts

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

13 Week Index – Black

Volume and 13 week average – Red and blue

US Dollar

COT070511_body_usd.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro

COT070511_body_eur.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound

COT070511_body_gbp.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian Dollar

COT070511_body_aud.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese Yen

COT070511_body_jpy.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian Dollar

COT070511_body_cad.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc

COT070511_body_chf.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold

COT070511_body_gold.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Silver

COT070511_body_silver.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper

COT070511_body_copper.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude

COT070511_body_crude.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

E-Mini S&P

COT070511_body_es.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

E-Mini Nasdaq

COT070511_body_nq.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

30 Yr US Treasury Bond

COT070511_body_us.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

10 Yr US Treasury Note

COT070511_body_ty.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

2 Yr US Treasury Note

COT070511_body_tu.png, COT Positioning Indicates that Commodity Currencies May Weaken

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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