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Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

2011-06-13 20:10:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Latest CFTC Release dated June 07, 2011:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

Comment

US Dollar

COT difference is positive, declining volume on weakness – overall bullish

Euro

British Pound

Australian Dollar

Japanese Yen

Canadian Dollar

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish

Swiss Franc

Divergence with speculative longs – warns of a top

Gold

Volume spike in March suggests important top

Silver

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish

Copper

Crude

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish

E-Mini S&P

Decreasing volume during 2 year rally is bearish; specs tend to be on right side and are currently short

E-Mini NASDAQ

30 Yr US Bond

10 Yr US Note

2 Yr US Note

Spec longs recently at record-warns of bubble

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 13 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 13 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. This is not always true however (especially for equity futures) –group behavior varies across markets. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Charts

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

13 Week Index – Black

Volume and 13 week average – Red and blue

US Dollar

COT061311_body_usd.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro

COT061311_body_eur.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound

COT061311_body_gbp.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian Dollar

COT061311_body_aud.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese Yen

COT061311_body_jpy.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian Dollar

COT061311_body_cad.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc

COT061311_body_chf.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold

COT061311_body_gold.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Silver

COT061311_body_silver.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper

COT061311_body_copper.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude

COT061311_body_crude.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

E-Mini S&P

COT061311_body_es.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

E-Mini Nasdaq

COT061311_body_nq.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

30 Yr US Treasury Bond

COT061311_body_us.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

10 Yr US Treasury Note

COT061311_body_ty.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

2 Yr US Treasury Note

COT061311_body_tu.png, Volume on US Dollar Futures Paints Bullish Picture

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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