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COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

2011-05-23 20:10:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Latest CFTC Release dated May 17, 2011:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

Comment

US Dollar

COT difference increasing from a low is bullish; increasing volume at low is bullish

Euro

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish; high volume at the high also bearish

British Pound

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish

Australian Dollar

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish; high volume at the high also bearish

Japanese Yen

Volume spike in March suggests major top

Canadian Dollar

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish; high volume at the high also bearish

Swiss Franc

Nothing

Gold

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish; high volume at the high also bearish

Silver

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish; high volume at the high also bearish

Copper

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish

Crude

COT difference decreasing from a high is bearish; high volume at the high also bearish

E-Mini S&P

Decreasing volume during 2 year rally is bearish; specs tend to be on right side and are currently short

E-Mini NASDAQ

Decreasing volume during 2 year rally is bearish; commercials tend to be on right side and are currently short

30 Yr US Bond

COT difference increasing from a low is bullish

10 Yr US Note

Nothing

2 Yr US Note

Spec longs were recently at a record suggesting that this may be a bubble

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 13 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 13 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. This is not always true however (especially for equity futures) –group behavior varies across markets. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Charts

Non Commercials (speculators)– Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

13 Week Index – Black

Volume and 13 week average – Red and blue

US Dollar

COT052311_body_usd.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro

COT052311_body_eur.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound

COT052311_body_gbp.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian Dollar

COT052311_body_aud.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese Yen

COT052311_body_jpy.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian Dollar

COT052311_body_cad.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc

COT052311_body_chf.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold

COT052311_body_gold.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Silver

COT052311_body_silver.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper

COT052311_body_copper.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude

COT052311_body_crude.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

E-Mini S&P

COT052311_body_es.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

E-Mini Nasdaq

COT052311_body_nq.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

30 Yr US Treasury Bond

COT052311_body_us.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

10 Yr US Treasury Note

COT052311_body_ty.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

2 Yr US Treasury Note

COT052311_body_tu.png, COT Analytics Bullish for US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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