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Trends in Positioning Suggest Yen Reversal

Trends in Positioning Suggest Yen Reversal

2011-05-16 22:25:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Latest CFTC Release dated May 10, 2011:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

52 Week Index (Current)

52 Week Index (Previous)

US Dollar

25

20

Euro

92

100

British Pound

77

96

Australian Dollar

61

86

Japanese Yen

27

16

Canadian Dollar

63

82

Swiss Franc

78

92

The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks. A reading close to 0 is bearish if the currency in question has reversed from a uptrend and is bullish if the currency has been declining for a significant amount of time. A reading close to 100 is bullish if the currency in question has reversed from a downtrend and is bearish if the currency has been rallying for a significant amount of time. Non commercials are on the correct side of the trend until the turn. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.

US Dollar

COT051611_body_usd.png, Trends in Positioning Suggest Yen Reversal

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro

COT051611_body_eur.png, Trends in Positioning Suggest Yen Reversal

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Speculative long positions as reported by the CFTC plunged a week after reaching their highest level since July 2007. This is not a surprise of course as the Euro collapsed towards the end of the prior week.

British Pound

COT051611_body_gbp.png, Trends in Positioning Suggest Yen Reversal

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian Dollar

COT051611_body_aud.png, Trends in Positioning Suggest Yen Reversal

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese Yen

COT051611_body_jpy.png, Trends in Positioning Suggest Yen Reversal

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Commercials were extremely long at the recent bottom, which is what one would expect. Since that bottom though, commercials have sold off all of their Yen and are now net short. Specs are now net long. As such, the Yen is vulnerable.

Canadian Dollar

COT051611_body_cad.png, Trends in Positioning Suggest Yen Reversal

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc

COT051611_body_chf.png, Trends in Positioning Suggest Yen Reversal

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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