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Euro Long Positions Recently at Highest Since July 2007

Euro Long Positions Recently at Highest Since July 2007

2011-05-09 22:25:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Latest CFTC Release dated May 03, 2011:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

52 Week Index (Current)

52 Week Index (Previous)

US Dollar

20

14

Euro

100

100

British Pound

96

98

Australian Dollar

86

92

Japanese Yen

16

8

Canadian Dollar

82

86

Swiss Franc

92

88

The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks. A reading close to 0 is bearish if the currency in question has reversed from a uptrend and is bullish if the currency has been declining for a significant amount of time. A reading close to 100 is bullish if the currency in question has reversed from a downtrend and is bearish if the currency has been rallying for a significant amount of time. Non commercials are on the correct side of the trend until the turn. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.

US Dollar

COT050911_body_usd.png, Euro Long Positions Recently at Highest Since July 2007

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro

COT050911_body_eur.png, Euro Long Positions Recently at Highest Since July 2007

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Speculative long positions as reported by the CFTC soared yet again to reach their highest level since July 2007! Of course, this number has plunged by now after the selloff but the data here is as of May 3rd (CFTC Friday release is for data as of Tuesday).

British Pound

COT050911_body_gbp.png, Euro Long Positions Recently at Highest Since July 2007

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian Dollar

COT050911_body_aud.png, Euro Long Positions Recently at Highest Since July 2007

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Speculative long positions have come off slightly from record levels. Positioning remains extremely one sided and warns of weakness.

Japanese Yen

COT050911_body_jpy.png, Euro Long Positions Recently at Highest Since July 2007

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian Dollar

COT050911_body_cad.png, Euro Long Positions Recently at Highest Since July 2007

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

In March, speculators were the most long the Canadian Dollar since the October 2007 high. Positioning has moderated somewhat but remains extremely bullish and thus warns of a reversal (USDCAD strength).

Swiss Franc

COT050911_body_chf.png, Euro Long Positions Recently at Highest Since July 2007

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

In March, speculators were the most long the Swiss Franc since the 2004 top (USDCHF bottom). Positioning has moderated somewhat but remains extremely bullish and thus warns of weakness (USDCHF strength).

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