Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
British Pound (GBP) Forecast: GBP/USD Risks Remain Lower

British Pound (GBP) Forecast: GBP/USD Risks Remain Lower

Justin McQueen,
GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Justin McQueen
Download our fresh Q2 GBP Forecast
Get My Guide

GBP Price Analysis & News

  • GBP Not Out of the Woods Yet
  • Sue Gray Report, Fiscal Talk and BoE Dove in Focus

GBP Not Out of the Woods Yet

A modest reprieve in the Pound after yesterday’s shocking PMI release with Cable once again reclaiming the 1.25 handle amid a helping hand from cross-selling in EUR/GBP. However, GBP is not out of the woods yet, downside risks will remain for the currency. The Sue Gray party-gate report is expected to be released today, which will once again increase political uncertainty. Meanwhile, there is some good news after reports suggest that the UK Chancellor is planning to announce a mini-budget in the face of the cost of living squeeze. In turn, the details will be closely watched in order to gauge whether this can keep GBP supported. My view remains that the Pound will continue to struggle, particularly on the basis that money markets are still far too aggressive on the interest rate outlook for the Bank of England. Thus, GBP is vulnerable to further dovish repricing. Looking ahead, Bank of England External Member, Tenreyro, is scheduled to speak, which will be notable for the Pound, given that Tenreyro has typically leaned on the dovish spectrum of the MPC.

Markets See 4.5 Hikes By Year-End

Source: Refinitiv

On the technical front, short-term resistance resides at the weekly high (1.26), while support sits at 1.24. As it stands, the bias remains a fade on rallies in GBP/USD and as we approach month-end, given the sell-off across US equities, the USD is likely to recoup its recent losses. Additionally, as equities continue to sag, downside in GBP vs JPY and CHF looks to be the path of least resistance.

GBP/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

Source: Refinitiv

GBP/USD Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% 0% 2%
Weekly 4% 1% 2%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.