Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Back Above 0.70 Post-RBA Meeting Minutes
- Hawkish RBA Meeting Minutes.
- China’s COVID standing improves.
- Bullish IG client sentiment.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
The Australian dollar gathered momentum in early trading this morning after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its meeting minutes highlighting the need for more aggressive tightening measures. The possibility of a 40bps rate hike was argued within the current climate of rising inflation, tight labor market and relatively low interest rates. For the period ending in December 2022, money markets are pricing in hikes cumulative to 251bps which trumps even the Fed’s 191bps at this point. Any dovish disappointments from the RBA could significantly hinder the AUD against the USD.
RBA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES
The U.S. dollar also lost traction after the COVID-19 situation in China recovered, further supporting the commodity linked AUD. On the economic calendar, U.S. retail sales along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech dominates headlines which may hamper today’s initial gains.
AUD/USD ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Source: DailyFX economic calendar
AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
AUD/USD DAILY CHART
Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG
As mentioned in my previous AUD/USD analysis, the bullish divergence occurrence has come to fruition. Price action now holds above the psychological 0.7000 level but may not be the reversal many bulls are waiting for. Caution should be observed during this period as fundamentals remain uncertain.
Key resistance levels:
- 20-day EMA (purple)
Key support levels:
IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: BULLISH
IGCS shows retail traders are currently LONG on AUD/USD, with 70% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment however, recent changes in long and short positioning results in an upside bias.
Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.