Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Breaking news

Bank of England votes 7-2 to hike by 25 bps, to 4.25%

EUR/USD Price Forecast: EURUSD Continues its Decline Ahead of EU CPI Next Week

EUR/USD Price Forecast: EURUSD Continues its Decline Ahead of EU CPI Next Week

Richard Snow, Analyst
What's on this page

EUR/USD News and Analysis

  • ECB members reiterate the same message – leaving the euro susceptible
  • We take a closer look at key support levels for the free-falling EUR/USD
  • Main risk events for the week ahead

ECB Members Reiterate the Same Message – Leaves Euro Susceptible

The ECB’s Centeno and de Guindos join Schnabel, Villeroy and Nagel in call for rate hikes to start after the ECB puts an end to bond purchases. The constant reiteration of the ECB’s stance further supports euro depreciation against the dollar, in light of the fact that the Fed is only just getting started on its rate hiking cycle despite already reaching 1% on the upper bound. This afternoon we see a number of ECB and Fed speakers with Nagel and Schnabel as well as Mester and Kashkari in the public eye.

Major central banks like the Fed, Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Canada (BoC) have been perceived by some as having taken too long to tighten monetary policy in the wake of surging inflation which reflects poorly on the euro as the European Central Bank (ECB) is yet to achieve lift-off. Current guidance states that the first rate hike in the bloc is due to take place early in Q3 with the 21st of July meeting identified as a convenient opportunity to do so. Rates markets agree that July will welcome the first rate hike as the July expectations currently factor in a 25 basis point hike. Between now and then, the Fed is estimated to hike another 50 basis points in June.

How to Trade EUR/USD
How to Trade EUR/USD
Recommended by Richard Snow
How to Trade EUR/USD
Get My Guide

EUR/USD Updated Technical Levels

After breaching the 1.0500 level, EUR/USD looks all the more likely to head towards parity in the months ahead. For now though, EUR/USD trades within the large (orange) support zone which had supported EUR/USD in the past on multiple occasions – refer to the monthly chart below for a better picture of this.

The most immediate level of support appears at the 1.0340 level – the 2017 low – with 1.0310 and 1.0180 (refer to monthly) as the next levels of support. Resistance comes in at 1.0450 and 1.0500.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

The monthly EUR/USD chart allows us to step back and analyze the longer-term major levels as the euro is on track to depreciate to levels not seen in decades as parity edges ever closer.

EUR/USD Monthly Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

Main Risk Events Ahead

The economic calendar is fairly light next week as US retail sales and EU inflation data are likely to steal the spotlight. A miss in US retail data could see a temporary move lower in the dollar, translating to a slight lift for EUR/USD. However, any reprieve is likely to be short-lived. EU inflation could appear to be flattening out as the expected headline figure comes in at 7.5% vs a prior 7.4% print, although, inflation data has a tendency to surprise to the upside so this outcome is assigned a fairly low probability but should still be considered.

Customize and filter live economic data via our DaliyFX economic calendar

Trade Smarter - Sign up for the DailyFX Newsletter

Receive timely and compelling market commentary from the DailyFX team

Subscribe to Newsletter

--- Written by Richard Snow for

Contact and follow Richard on Twitter: @RichardSnowFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.