Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Breaking news

NFP prints at 339k vs estimates of 190k, ave earnings in line at 0.3% MoM

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Bids Post-FOMC Lose Ground in Early Trading

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Bids Post-FOMC Lose Ground in Early Trading

Warren Venketas, Analyst
What's on this page


  • Fed’s 75bps commentary stifles USD.
  • Tomorrow’s NFP in focus.
  • IG Client Sentiment: Bullish.


EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Get Your Free EUR Forecast
Get My Guide

Yesterday’s market reaction to the Fed’s interest rate decision and press conference saw the dollar sliding across the board after Fed Chair Jerome Powell rejected the possibility of upcoming 75bps rate hikes. The Euro found some much needed respite post-announcement but early trading today saw a lack of conviction from EUR/USD bulls to continue the upside move.

Looking at the fundamental landscape facing the Euro, the announcement by EU to place a ban on Russian oil does not give much in the way of positivity for the region. Growth prospects will likely be vulnerable leaving the Euro exposed to further weakness. I still remain positive on the dollar against the Euro medium/long-term with central bank divergence being the primary driver.

The economic calendar remains relatively light today for the pair, but tomorrow’s highlight comes via the Non-Farm Payroll release. Forecasts are down at 391K from the previous 431K which could allow for a positive close for the Euro should actual data come in line with expectations.


EURUSD economic calendar

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Get My Guide



EURUSD daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

EUR/USD price action currently flirts with the 1.0600 level after yesterday’s uptick. This corrective move higher coincides with the overbought signal shown on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Short-term, there is definitely more Euro strength on the cards (backed by IG client sentiment below) but should be limited as fundamentals favor the greenback.

Resistance levels:

  • 50-day EMA (blue)
  • 1.0806
  • 20-day EMA (purple)

Support levels:

  • 1.0471
  • 1.0400


IGCS shows retail traders are currently LONG on EUR/USD, with 73% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment however, due to recent changes in long and short positioning, we favor Euro strength.

EUR/USD Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% 12% 2%
Weekly -6% 11% 1%
Learn how to use Sentiment in your trading strategy
Get My Guide

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.