News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Crude Oil Forecast: Failed Russia-Ukraine Talks Prompt Brent Crude Breakout

Crude Oil Forecast: Failed Russia-Ukraine Talks Prompt Brent Crude Breakout

Warren Venketas, Analyst

BRENT CRUDE OIL (LCOc1) ANALYSIS

  • Putin comment disrupts supply-side forecasts.
  • Chinese import data.

CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

Brent crude continued its gains after yesterdays push higher despite a stronger dollar. The large increase in API U.S. crude storage data (see calendar below) was unable to limit upside that stemmed from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments about unsuccessful talks with Ukraine thus opening up room for a tighter crude market and the growing probability of EU crude oil sanctions on Russia.

brent crude economic calendar

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

Supporting from the demand-side, China has lifted some lockdown restrictions in Shanghai but unfortunately Chinese crude imports showed a marked slowdown since last year limiting crude gains. This was largely expected due to a slump in economic growth as well as China’s ‘zero tolerance’ approach to COVID-19 creating lesser demand for crude oil.

Learn more about Crude Oil Trading Strategies and Tips in our newly revamped Commodities Module!

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BRENT CRUDE (LCOc1) DAILY CHART

daily brent crude chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Daily brent crude price action has been sandwiched between the 20-day ad 5-day EMA’s respectively after yesterday’s candle close above the downward sloping trendline (black). This candle close above could be the confirmation needed to spur bulls on to higher highs and subsequent resistance levels.

Key resistance levels:

  • $109.03
  • 20-day EMA (purple)
  • 50-day EMA (blue)

Key support levels:

  • $100
  • 100-day EMA (yellow)
  • $95.59
  • $91.83

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: UNCERTAIN

IGCS shows retail traders are marginally NET LONG on Crude Oil, with 59% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment however, after recent changes in positioning the bias remains mixed.

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES