S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russia, Ukraine, Jerome Powell – Talking Points
- S&P 500 rally cools off around 200-day moving average, risks remain skewed higher
- Nasdaq 100 fails at first test of 50-day moving average, pressured by higher yields
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set to deliver remarks later this afternoon
US equity benchmarks were mixed early Monday as market participants digested the implications of last week’s slate of blockbuster events. Risk assets have roared higher following last week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, despite a continued stalemate in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Equity benchmarks may have benefitted from institutions and money managers unwinding defensive bets, as Fed officials stuck with a 25 basis point hike and kicked an announcement on balance sheet reduction down the road.
After carving out a near-term bottom around 4,160, S&P 500 futures ripped higher in an unprecedented post-FOMC rally. Price has since returned to the 200-day moving average, which has capped upside action during Monday’s session. The recent ramp higher could suggest that price may be exhausted, which could see congestion for a short period before the next leg higher. Despite being penned in by the 200-day MA, bulls can find solace in the 50-day MA which sits just below for support. With a view to the upside, longs may target the 100-day MA around 4,540 as a first upside scalp.
S&P 500 Futures Daily Chart
Chart created with TradingView
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -5% | 1% | -1% |
| Weekly | -3% | 6% | 3% |
Nasdaq 100 Futures Daily Chart
Chart created with TradingView
Nasdaq 100 futures are under pressure to start the week, as US Treasury yields rise across the curve. The pullback in the tech-heavy index coincides with a test of the 50-day moving average, which price was unable to close above during Friday’s session. In my piece from last Thursday, I suggested that momentum could fizzle out around 14,367 (October 2021 Lows). The main hurdle here for the Nasdaq 100 remains the 50-day moving average, with clean air above on the way to 14,600. Attention now shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will be delivering remarks around 12 PM EST.
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--- Written by Brendan Fagan, Intern
To contact Brendan, use the comments section below or @BrendanFaganFX on Twitter
