Gold Price (XAU/USD), Chart, and Analysis
- Gold breaks above $2k as the metal sector continues to rally hard.
- Gold’s long-term technical setup looks bullish.
- Nickel spikes in price raising fears of margin defaults.
The price of gold hit a fresh 18-month earlier today as investors poured into the hard commodity space, sending prices in some metals spiraling higher. The London Metal Exchange (LME) has suspended trading in nickel after the industrial metal topped $100,000 a ton on fears that brokers caught short may have difficulty in paying their margins. According to media reports, the China Construction Bank Corporation has been granted additional time to pay 100s of millions of US dollars’ worth of margin calls that it missed on Monday.
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With the war in Ukraine showing no sign of abating, sanctions on Russia continue to grow. Late yesterday, the London Bullion Markets Association (LBMA) suspended six Russian refiners with immediate effect, adding that gold and silver from these refiners will no longer be accepted as Good Delivery by the London Bullion market until further notice.
The longer-term outlook for gold is looking rosy, according to the monthly chart, with a bullish ‘cup and handle’ pattern currently building. If this long-term indicator plays out, the price of gold may have substantially further to run.
Gold Monthly Price Chart – March 8, 2022
The daily gold chart shows very little in the way of resistance before the August 2020 multi-year high at $2,075/oz. comes into view. The ATR indicator shows that gold’s volatility is at a multi-month high – and this should be factored into any trading position – while robust support is seen around $1,960/oz.
Gold Daily Price Chart – March 8, 2022
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Retail trader data show 69.65% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.29 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.26% lower than yesterday and 9.44% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.61% lower than yesterday and 9.65% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall.
Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias.
What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.
